Sep 1, 2017
Update
This weeks and the next two weeks there will be no weekly analysis. If I have time I will post short updates.
SP500 is testing the resistance zone and the trend line as expected. Most of the indexes look more like a-b-c only Nasdaq more like 1-2-3 because the second wave higher is longer, but it could be just C=1,618xA. I think it is wave B, but we need confirmation first
This is a moment when you can not say if the price will break above resistance or reverse lower.... you can try to forecast, but you do not have a guarantee for an outcome with high probability.
With this said I think patience is better than trying to bet on bearish outcome at the moment and the time to be bullish was as I wrote about the short term bottom:). I do not see signs for imminent reversal so it is more likely to see toping for 1-2 days or continuation higher:
- if this is wave B(red) toping should start - boring Friday and most likely a top on Tuesday.
- if this is wave 3(green) in the next two trading days the price should continue moving higher above resistance and challenge the ATH. If SPX can not rally 20 points(wave 3=1,618x1=2490 the previous high) in the next two days this will be a warning sign for the bulls.
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Thanks for the update. You have done an excellent job! Keep it up! Just one quick question, if we are currently in Wave 4 -B, does it mean the Wave4 -A is running in a-b-c? Does A usually run in simple structure or 1-2-3-4-5? So, if it is a-b-c, then it probably means wave4 is already behind us. we are now in Wave 5 -3, and very likely to run higher than 2490, and higher. What do you think?
ReplyDeleteSeparately, USD index is at the critical neck line of a head&shoulder top, and most of the other EM markets show the current wave 4 was behind and now going to wave 5.
Yes A was only a-b-c. Corrections can have many different shapes A could be impulse or a-b-c.
DeleteYes because it is only a-b-c the correction could be over(the green count above), but in this case it will be wave 4 of lower degree and not wave 4 from the Feb.2016 low.
USD I think this is wave 3 and the same for EM wave 4 is still missing.
Krasi,
DeleteHow can the correction be over? If you look at wave 1, the correction lasted for weeks. How can correction for wave 3 be over in 2 weeks? That just doesn't make sense... not to mention the correction produced less than 5% retracement. It just doesn't make any sense here...
John
Read carefully - "wave 4 of lower degree and NOT wave 4 from the Feb.2016 low"
DeleteKrasi,
ReplyDeleteIn your charts, do you look at after hour trades? I have been reading about "windows" and appears a lot of the Windows would not exist if u use the extended hour trades. Looking at the recent spy chart, we have a potential gap / support 246.30-246.60. But with extended trading, it would not exist.
Also do you use extended trading values for EW waves? Sometimes, there are clear violations with wave 2 entering wave 1.
Appreciate your input.
Thanks,
Kali
No I do not use after hours only sometimes looking at the futures ES when the pattern is not so clear.
ReplyDeleteI find your analysis simply spot on. Even employing the same style of analysis, you see things I don't see. Your a-b-c call was spot on. I observed that as 1-3 and was waiting for the 5th.
DeleteThere is definitely a lot of art in this. Certain discerning ability I don't know I will ever have.
Great work krasi. Great work.
Kali
Forecasting the both a-b-c down and up worked surprisingly good:) Now it is getting difficult with two zig-zags there is a lot of options. After the down day from Tuesday the markets are doing... nothing. I think the pattern starts looking like a triangle.
DeleteReversal so fast?? Do you think SPX would test previous high tomorrow? or in the next short term hourly chart? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteWe had topping on Friday as expected and now bearish candlestick formation. I do not think the high will be tested.
DeleteIs USD index still in its long term down wave A and subwave 3? any potential target for this down wave A? Thanks. It seems almost to hit neckline and begins reversal, but the bottoming is so weak...
ReplyDeleteIn your long term review this summer, it suggests Gold/PM should hit resistance around 1300 and go down. Now both GOLD and PM/miners look like rally up. Do you think It would continue higher to rally or the original long term expectation still holds? Thanks.
DeleteI second the question above about gold/miners and would ask about oil, too. Do you still see move lower into low 40s/ high 30s in the Q4 ?
DeleteUSD - I am wondering if this wave 5 already.... target around 90.
DeletePM/Miners - a few more weeks higher for a finished pattern. Long term I still think the pattern is bearish and we will see another leg lower.
Crude oil - as long as it stays below the last high around 50 yes it should move lower.
Gold futures 1200 whereabouts at the turn of 2017/2018 would mean test of support from 12/2015 and retest of broken resistance from 9/2011. Then gold would take off and breakout from enormous IHS. That would be strong enough drop to push miners towards your targets listed in long term analysis. I assume that's the scenario you have in mind?
DeleteIt should be something more serious around or below the Dec.2016 low.
DeleteGold looks strong because it is close to the last high. All I see is corrective move higher from Dec.2016.
My reference is the JPY - extremely high correlation almost 1:1. Look at Japanese yen Philadelphia index(XJY stockcharts.com or XDN freestockcharts.com) and you will see severe sell off 3 months and corrective crap 9-10 months so far. We should see another serious sell off which should hurt gold.
Some guys even see a lower low below Dec.2015, but I think we have major low at the end of 2015. Some guys are talking about break out and gold 5000. I do not believe it for me commodities are in secular bear market.
I am somewhere in the middle. I think this is cyclical bull market and I suspect huge flat correction (3 down and 3 up so far) so something around the Dec.2016 will look great.
I do not see the JPY and gold miners supporting gold bull market at the moment.
Today it jumps above resistance. So now the scenario would be higher high to 2520? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteThe move up is overlapping consisting of three waves so it should be a diagonal with target around 2500.
DeleteOther option is ugly looking B wave from a triangle or flat correction.....
DeleteThe point is this should be another top and not the beginning of a rally.
Thank you. That's reasonable and it looks like diagonal to finish the impulsive up for a long time. Is it possible to forecast today's impulsive up from last week's candles? Thanks. From last Friday, it seems weak and should continue to go down.
DeleteNow can we confirm GOLD has reached peak. It seems USDJPY is so strong. Or it would retest the low again for confirmation
ReplyDeleteYes strong reversal for USDJPY the timing(cycles) looks good for intermediate term low so gold should move lower.
DeleteTrading is almost impossible. Even with all the great analysis.
ReplyDeleteNot exactly. You have to change your thinking. You have to accept that there is no analysis which can predict every move and you can not trade every move. Often you will be wrong which makes you think trading is impossible.
DeleteThe analysis should show you not every swing, but when to expect a move with high probability. Once you make profit lets say 1000$ once you make loss 200$ after 10 trades for a year you have profit 4000$.
That is all:) You have to change your approach to trading.
Wondering about your long term outlook on Natural gas UNG. Do you see more downside in 2018
ReplyDeleteThere is one more leg lower probably until the end of 2017 or early 2018. I think this low should be an important low and strong move higher should follow.... above 4$ (NATGAS)
DeleteI checked your intermediate term chart and found the final wave 5 is up to 2525. Now it almost reaches there... Can we say this could be a larger degree top? In this sense, the topping could be longer and the correction (potential down move) would be delayed. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteThis should be the top of wave 3 from the Feb.2016 low. This means one correction for wave 4 and one more rally for wave 5. The delay of the correction means much higher probability for sharp correction, but short living only a few weeks.
DeleteThanks. How about short term chart? From daily chart and hourly one, we can see SPX is still well controlled and very bullish. How long does it need to build the top? Or this Friday is triple OE day, which means a good time to begin correction? This week's market is so strange...
DeleteShort term the pattern is a little bit strange at the moment. For an impulse we need at least two more highs, not much higher 20-30 points... but another 2-3 weeks.
DeleteThat means 2520~2530...??
DeleteYes yes. All gambling. You need luck. There is no substitute for luck.
ReplyDeleteTrading has nothing to do with luck or gambling. It is weighting probabilities and managing risk.
DeleteKrasi has been calling for a correction since the beginning of the year, frankly he's been way off, it's almost embarrassing. At this point, he should take some time off and get some rest.
ReplyDeleteThe troll is back!! hope it's upset because it's all in on bitcoin
ReplyDeleteHow about biotech, it has been hanging over for a long time... another wave up or it has reached peak.
ReplyDeleteOne more high and intermediate term top.
DeleteIn this sense, SPX will stay higher for a while because biotech would definitely help a lot to SPX. Is there any timing for this topping process if 2500 is the top...
DeleteFor a normal pattern we should see higher price for SPX and 2-3 weeks probably.
DeleteKrasi, I'd love to see an update of S&P 500 chart. I know that you like to display your whole list of indices in order to give a complete picture of things. But I'd be perfectly happy to see this one chart every week - it would save you a lot of time and is more than what anyone would expect from a free site like yours. Also ignore the troll! I like seeing your charts.
ReplyDeleteI am not at home. This weekend I will post short update.
DeleteKrasi, you help me make some money this year so I must reiterate as well please ignore the troll. This person must have a lot of time on their hands to say the stuff he says
ReplyDeleteI have no problems with such comments:) It is obvious that it is not about trading. If he had read what I wrote, he would have made some money down and up.
DeleteHe is holding an hoping.... just afraid to lose some profits and when we see a move higher comes the relief and explains me how wrong I am:))))
Am I seeing one more wave high on XBI for five waves up to complete the move?
DeleteYes one more move up.
DeleteEW wave technicians calling wave 4 behind us and currently in wave 5. What are your thoughts?
ReplyDeleteWhich wave 4? From Feb.2016 or something short term?
DeleteIf it is long term from the Feb.2016 low - no this is the top of wave 3.