Sep 30, 2017

Weekly preview

Short term view - pullback and one more high.
Intermediate term view - waiting for the current move up to be finished, after that another correction which should be the biggest for 2017.

This is the first higher high from the expected two more highs as pointed in the short update two weeks ago. The same analysis - as long as we do not see impulsive reversal below 2480 I expect pullback and one final higher high. Looking at many different indexes this is the scenario with higher probability.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - 7 swings so far and for a finished impulse we need 9 swings. As long as support and MA200 hold I expect test of the break out and another high.


Intermediate term - other indexes like DAX,RUT support the idea to expect one more high with divergences before reversal.


Long term - no change, waiting for the top of the current leg higher then one more correction and a rally before the end of the bull market. Momentum is pointing up but building double divergences.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - still pointing higher with a buy signal. Weak for indexes making ATHs, but no signs of a reversal which says more time needed to see divergences and turn lower.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero with divergences.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - hanging at the same levels, very weak only 65% of the shares above MA50.
Fear Indicator VIX - extreme complacency again. Historically we see such thing for the first time below 10 for 5 months.


HURST CYCLES
Day 29 of the 40 day cycle. The expected pullback should be 40 day cycle low.


Week 6 of the 20 week cycle. The pullback should be half cycle low week 7 or 8.

33 comments:

  1. Thanks for the early Saturday morning post. It's nice to start thinking about strategy for the coming two weeks.

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  2. Hi Krasi,

    What is your view on QQQ?

    Thanks again,

    Kali

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    Replies
    1. One more high for diagonal will look great. I do not have another idea if it is not an ED.

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  3. Hi Krasi,
    I know you anticipate wave lower in USDJPY and higher in PM/Miners. What are your targets?
    Also, don't you think this year's drop in USD was only wave 4 correction? In other words, current position in the Kuznets cycle might be March 1984 and October 1999 respectively.

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    1. Something between 38% and 50% Fibo retracement.
      For the USD I do not see a way how to twist it as a wave 4. It has completely different behavior, EW does not support it, Cycles does not support it... the only way is to say the price action from March.2015 is some expanding triangle, but I do not believe it. USD made major top and it wll move lower for 7 years.

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  4. I am sorry to disappoint you. The US Dollar made a major low on the 8th of September as we perfectly squared the all-time high. That is a rare event and with the market respecting that summetry to the very day, the current upside move that is in motion could be much more important to what many are expecting and can understand.

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    Replies
    1. I would not put so much faith in squares.... or what ever it is.

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    2. I appreciate the work you do and share for free trying to help others. While I acknowledge that EW is a very interesting approach to the markets, I can assure you that there are other paths that which are far more accurate and advanced compared to the EW. The purpose of my comment was not to play smart neither to prove the obvious.

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    3. Of course there is other paths, I do not think EW is the best tool, but good enough.
      I have heard about so many timing gurus - Gann, squares, CIT dates, astrology, three peaks and a domed house etc. counting some days, always very accurate but secret.... throwing some dates. Sometimes it works most of the time not. Until I know more, "perfectly squared" is from this category "magic tools":)
      If you want you can share more information, if not we can only wait and see what happens.

      My forecast is based on cycles not EW. We have major 16 year cycle high for the USD right on time and EW just confirms it with impulsive reversal. I do not see anything to suggest the opposite. Now multi month move up is coming, but this is only intermediate low and USD will not make higher high. This are the tools I know and they are doing very good job. I can not change my forecast, when I do not see signs to suggest something else.

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  5. Thank you for update... This market is like a one direction road... Only goes up. :) people even forgetting the market could crash :)such a boring market

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    1. Yes, it is getting boring:) and there is one more down and up..... we have to wait another 2-3 weeks for more action.

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  6. hi Krasi have u changed your views on usd, gold and gold miners since your july updates?

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    1. USD - no, most liekly wave 4 up running and one more lower low for intermediate term low.
      PM - I think the pattern is much more complicated and it will continue in 2018 before we see important low.

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  7. Hey krasi,

    Thoughts on xbi?

    Thanks,

    Kali

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    Replies
    1. Not sure maybe a dip to 86,50 and high around 89,50.

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  8. Hey Krasi, now that SPX has surpassed your short and intermediate term targets, are you still thinking we're in wave 3?

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    Replies
    1. Yes, the pattern has not changed.

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  9. Impressive market rally. Any thoughts on the advance this week?

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    1. The move extending to the maximum, but the pattern has not changed.
      Time and price is confirming what I wrote two weeks ago this move is not part of the wave from the April low.

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    2. Hi Krasi, If it's not part of the wave from the April low, what wave could it be part of? Also, any thoughts on RUT? Thanks for all the great work!

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    3. I suspect it could be (v) of iii of 3 or we are seeing just the top of iii and not 3. The pattern from the Nov.2016 is not very clear a lot of room for interpretation the next correction will tell us if it iii or 3.
      RUT it looks like the top of wave 3.

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  10. How do you see the Max for SPX could be now? we passed 2530 and now 2550.... thanx

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    1. The only Fibo measurements left are max extension for wave 3 2584 and extended wave v of 3 2568.

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  11. this market has grown wings to fly. It’s unbelievable. Yes I am short. Yes I got my ass handed to me today. Good luck to all.

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    1. I am sorry to hear it. Everybody makes mistakes. This is one of the hardest lessons - to be patient. I have burned my self so many times.... I know what is going on and despite that I made such stupid thing.

      P.S. if you have shorted in the last couple of days and not big pat of your account you can think of taking the risk to wait several weeks.

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    2. I am a new trader. I don’t know who I should listen to but I found your site.

      I literally just opened my account a week ago :) I thought your site had cool info so I wanted to start getting involved.

      I don’t know why I decided to short. It was so stupid. The market is sprinting up again u know. But I had read some stuff on candles and thought hey here is hang man I will short. But it was stupid since I did not wait for it to fall first.

      I don’t have a good feeling about the whole thing now that I am losing money. I think I will sell it if it goes higher today. It totally sucks!

      But thanks for listening. It’s totally awesome u write back!!

      Jen

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    3. Hi ! Well, you came to the wrong site. This is just one of many worthless financial web sites, you won't find any guidance here, believe me. Krasi has been expecting a stock market correction since the beginning of the year, he's been way way off it's almost embarrassing. When Krasi is wrong he will say : well, there's another interpretation of Elliott waves.....or the pattern is not very clear..or similar nonsense.
      I might sound harsh on Krasi but I'm just saying the truth to newcomers.
      best regards

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    4. And yet you are still here Wasting your time on this blog. Incredible!

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    5. Oh my god! You are so rude. I would just not come here if I felt that way.

      Jen

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    6. He writes every time, do not pay him attention... he has some problems and looks for a quarrel.

      It depends on how much time you are ready to invest. If you want to be a trader it will take several years to learn, to gather some experience, to find the tools which fits you , the right time frame to trade and the most difficult part to overcome yourself.
      If you do not have the time the best is to find some service which fits you - risk profile, time frame(how often you trade) etc.

      If you choose the first path you should now that it will take years and it will be very hard because you will fight with yourself all the time. The first fight has begun - you feel bad because you are loosing money. It is inevitable you will lose money all the time, but if you are patient you will learn how to lose money without hurting you(see Money management).

      Do not worry you have just begun it is not a terrible mistake, but now is the time to decide how much time and efforts you are ready to invest.

      I do not give advices buy or sell... the blog is a help for traders with some experience which can make decision when to enter/exit a trade based on the information I present.

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  12. Hi Krasi! Thx for your updates, quality work as usual! Are you publishing an update this weekend? What’s your view on europe indexes too by any chances? Good luck!

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    Replies
    1. The do not look much different. Short term the same, intermediate term top of wave 3 from the Feb.2016 low, which means another correction and rally.

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