Sep 17, 2017
Update
At the low in August I wrote that there is nothing so bearish because the move lower is only three waves and there is two options B wave or the last wave up to finish wave 3 on the daily chart.
Until my last post two weeks ago wave B was more likely, but after initial reaction from the resistance zone we did not saw follow trough. Now it is obvious that this move is part of wave three.
I think NYSE has the most clean pattern showing five waves for wave 3 and five waves for wave v of 3.
Short term - for example NASDAQ has five waves higher, but NYSE and SPX have overlapping waves and the only way I see for a finished pattern(impulse) is two more highs. As long as the support zone holds I expect to see this two highs. On the chart is shown the NYSE index, but SP500 has the same pattern with support zone 2480-2490.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Thanks for the simple updates. We needed it. Great job! Very interesting.
ReplyDeleteDid u not say top was in? Now moving higher? Good grief. Every day something different
ReplyDeleteNo I did not. Read the previous post.
DeleteU r a very clever fellow. U have good chart skills. But u have to admit this whole Elliot wave business is complete rubbish. If it goes higher, could it go higher after 2 more waves? Of course it can and then it will be time to relabel. Complete rubbish I tell ya.
Delete@Anonymous bro GTFOH... your so annoying.... your a loser...
Deletewhy are you trying ruin something that everyone else appreciates.... if you dont like what Krasi or others have to say why are you here... go on Reddit or kick rocks instead...
sir,
DeleteI call rubbish when I see rubbish. You haven't said anything positive except wanting to keep blinders on.
It's a good site with too much on EW.
You think it is too much EW because I always describe the moves with EW labels, but the analysis is based on several tools(posting it every week). I can describe them with cycles up - 40 day top, down - 10 day low, up - 20 day top etc. just EW labels are easier for me.
Delete"EW is crap/rubbish .etc" - I had this discussion about EW... thousand times:) I always say the same:
First - when you do not like EW do not use it. You do not like it because you do not know how to use it, which is your problem not problem with EW.
Second - tell me a tool which is always unambiguous and does not need "relabeling"... until now I have not received an answer.
I will start:
- EW - often the moves mutate especially corrections and the count must be adjusted - RELABEL.
- Cycles - they do not even agree where to put the labels. For some the 9 year cycle low was in 2009 for other in 2011. Now they put the 18 month low in August and I think they are wrong it was in April. Shortened cycles elongated cycles pined lows etc. This is not a problem to explain me that EW is rubbish and cycles are so elegant and can pinpoint every low which is clear joke - where is the LABEL at all???
- TA indicators - some times reversal without divergence sometimes with divergence and now if you look at the RSI on the weekly chart is heading higher again after divergence probably for double divergence - RELABEL.
- Market breadth - the same story like the indicators... when it is oversold will it reverse or stay oversold? and for how long? No answer - RELABEL.
- TomDemark sequential - I have seen many of his interviews and he was many times wrong. After finished buy/sell setup will we see a reversal or countdown? After the countdown reversal or another setup for reinforcement? No idea - wait and RELABEL.
- Astrology - I have seen many gurus failing miserably - most of the time RELABEL needed.
I am curios to hear which tool is not rubbish and do not need relabeling?
P.S. EW was not such a rubbish when I called the top, the continuation lower(after everybody were telling it is like in May) and the low in August, isn't it?
Your approach is completely wrong that is why you do not find value in EW. You see a tool which can not project exactly the pattern into the future and needs relabeling. Well there is no such tool which can predict the future.
My approach - I need a tool to tell me with high probability that after A -> B follows and EW is doing good job.
Example - in 2015 early 2016 everybody was shitting their pants crash bla bla. And I wrote all the time just a correction... the same after Brexit. Now tell me which is the important information?
a) after correction another rally follows - time to buy and make some money
b) the correction can be flat,zig-zag,triangle... it has mutated and now from a zig-zag is triangle I have relabeled
It is a correction this is all I need to know even if I relabel 10 times I do not care.
I hope you grasp the idea.
You are a fine fellow for taking your time responding to an old fool like me.
DeleteI figure your trades are good because of good risk management.
Astrology, Elliot waves, cycles are all rubbish. But whatever rubbish u use, take losses quickly and let the winners run.
I see no more edge in your method than any other average chap's idea of why it should go up or down as markets are disorderly mess.
That's just musings of an old chap whose been in this since 1950...
I do not like risk at all. I have something like.... 10 trades per year:) I trade only if I think the probability is 80% or higher. If I see an option to relabel - no go.
DeleteI agree with you. When it is about trading there is no "the right tool", there is the tool which you feel comfortable with.... and appropriate risk management.
You are an incredibly insightful fellow indeed..
DeleteThanks for update... sounds like we are getting closer to the Target and soon will be Interesting
ReplyDeleteKrasi, thanks for the update. I saw Tom DeMark on Bloomberg the other day- youtu.be/UBf9eGH9UdU
ReplyDeleteHe is looking for a top and reversal, but I'm not sure how he is getting a 13-count indicating trend exhaustion on the DJI? I assume it's a daily count, but not clear from the chart in the video.
I use a free plugin script on TradingView that does the count for me and seems to usually line up with the ones you post. It's this one if you are interested: tradingview.com/script/heX4UkLg-stripykitteh-s-DeMark-Indicator/
Anyway the bigger picture is that his thoughts in the video do not seem to contradict your view that we are very close to a wave IV correction, possibly 5%+...
Thanks for the DeMark interview. I always like to hear when he senses a trend change.
DeleteI do not know what he means with this 13 either:) Looking at the indicators and market breadth the market looks tired....
DeleteI have tried the script with TradingView, but I do not see labels.....
Yeah it helps if you pull the indicator screen up to see it better. The signal is good when the bar eventually prints with the thickest width. It should look like this: https://ibb.co/gGzFG5
DeleteI had been using an older version of the script and when I re-loaded it with the newer one from July that I linked above, the counts seemed to work like DeMark said.
Right now I see sell signals from last week on the daily charts of SPY, DJI, DIA but not SPX.
Thanks for the update for investors outside US, one of the best analysis on US mkt.
ReplyDeleteKrasi, thanks for your analysis. Please keep up the good work!
ReplyDeleteHey Krasi,
ReplyDeleteThanks for your new update!
Really appreciate it!
Kali
Hey krasi,
ReplyDeleteWhat do you think of xbi now?
Thanks,
Kali
Impulse finished from the August low something lower expected something between 72-75.
DeleteLong term not very clear - either finished double zig-zag or iii of 3 from the Feb.2016 low. As long as we do not have overlap price below 69 the bullish option looks better if you look at the whole picture since the inception of the ETF.
Thanks krasi.
DeleteIt's always great to hear your insight.
Kali