Sep 23, 2017

Weekly preview

Short term view - more to the upside.
Intermediate term view - waiting for the current move up to be finished probably 2 weeks after that another correction.

Nothing new this week... as long as the price stays above 2480 expect the move higher to continue. At the moment I do not see signs for a reversal.

Intermediate term.... something does not look right. Now when I have looked at the charts closely market breadth is saying the decline in August is not part of the move higher from the April low, it is of different degree. If this is true this is not the top of wave 3 from the Feb.2016. Emerging markets and European indexes support such pattern. Cycles will look better with such more bullish pattern. So now waiting to see how long will it take for the current move to reverse and if subsequent correction stays above the 2400-2420 area.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - I do not see finished pattern or signs for a reversal - sideway move and the indicators are resetting.


Intermediate term - I have some doubts that this the top of wave 3 from the Feb.2016 low. The next move lower will tell us what is going on.


Long term - no change, waiting for the top of the current leg higher then one more correction and a rally before the end of the bull market.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - are pointing higher, but very weak for indexes making new ATH, lower highs again and long term divergences are building.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero waiting for divergence before the indexes turn lower.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal, pointing higher.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal, but could not move into overbought territory.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - very weak only 65% of the shares above MA50.
Fear Indicator VIX - a lot of complacency again. I think we will see a divergence.
This chart is showing that the declines from April and August are probably of the same degree. The same are showing other market breadth indicators and the RSI/MACD. It does not make sense wave of such lower degree (iv) of v of 3 to cause such deep move lower and 20 week cycle low.


HURST CYCLES
Day 24 in the middle of the 40 day cycle.


Week 5 of the 20 week cycle.


Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
We have finished sell setup on the daily chart.

42 comments:

  1. Hi Krasi,

    Thanks for your updates!

    Now does this mean this could be wave 5 now?

    - Kali

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    Replies
    1. I was thinking more like 3 of 3 of 3.

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    2. Sorry didn't get the point with this " It does not make sense wave of such lower degree (iv) of v of 3 to cause such deep move lower and 20 week cycle low." My understanding is such deep move lower and 20 week cycle low should be wave of higher degree? Can you post a potential 3 of 3 of 3 chart? Thanks. It's better to compare both labeling :) Does it mean aug peak is not (iii) but v?

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    3. The consensus is that this is the top of wave 3 from the Feb.2016 low. In this case the August decline is small wave (iv) of v of 3. Market breadth does not look like we saw decline of such lower degree. If the next correction do not make a low somewhere in the 2300-2350 area for wave 4 than we have something much more bullish - https://charts.stocktwits.com/production/original_95728200.?1506194805
      By the way cycles fit much better with this bullish scenario.

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    4. Thank you very much for the chart. Can you post a chart for nasdaq100?

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    5. For the Nasdaq I do not have other count than the top of wave 3 at the moment.

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    6. Thanks a lot for the information. Out if curiosity, how about the so called Decennial Pattern? Some explanation assumes years ending in 7 would be bad. In this sense, market should be corrected deeply with some bearish movement?

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    7. I just follow the market and don't care much about such patterns.
      The only deep correction I see is lower to the 2350 area.

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  2. Thanks for the update Krasi.
    How do you see USD index and USDJPY over the next 2-3 months?

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    Replies
    1. DXY should make one final low and USDJPY should retrace too when the current move higher is finished.

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    2. And what's the time frame for this move? Is gold/gold miner already bottom in short term and begin retrace higher now?

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    3. After the current move up is finished I would say 3-5 weeks.
      Yes PM look like finished impulse lower and should retrace higher.

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  3. Krasi, what do you think about €/$?, thanks

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    Replies
    1. One more higher high will look better.

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  4. Was wondering the same about EUR. FXE short a possibility or do you see more upside in near term?

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    Replies
    1. FXE the price action looks like a triangle so more to the upside.

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  5. How about biotech in short term? Along with SPX for wave 4 and 5 or has peaked? Thanks.

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    Replies
    1. One more high, it looks like bull flag not a top.

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    2. Hi krasi,

      Do you mean xbi as bull flag?

      Thanks,

      Kali

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    3. IBB XBI it is the same....

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    4. What is your target for xbi?

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    5. The only pattern I see at the moment for this last move is ED and in this case the top should be around 87.
      The Fibonacci levels are - 85,80 / 87.65 / 89,35

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    6. Thanks krasi

      Kali

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  6. Hi Krasi,
    I'd really appreciate if you could provide your feedback to the following opinion about S&p500:
    https://www.barchart.com/story/news/load-more-stories/4057239/spx-elliott-wave-view-at-weekly-inflection-area

    I check their opinion sometimes, usually short term EW analysis. They sound like they know what they are talking about. But this is long term view and I am totally confused. They say that the rally from 2009 onward has been a corrective C of ABC correction which started in 2002, if I understood correctly. Can you comment on this, please? Thanks so much
    Krisarnold

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This guys always count zig-zags. I have never seen them counting an impulse. No idea what they are doing.
      Why starting the count somewhere and ignore the price action before that???? To make a zig-zag. Fits perfect with there custom EW or what ever it is.

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  7. Suppose SPX is finishing the wave 4 and 5 up as the chart shown, at the same time Nasdaq has began big wave 4 correction? is is possible? or nasdaq only small candles correction hanging on until all indexes are ready to plunge lower? Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is possible, the other indexes could make the final high and Nasdaq wave 2 of the correction.
      I would like to see rather one more minor high for the Nasdaq for a finished diagonal from the July low.

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  8. Hi Krasi, what's your view on oil? Is it bottomed short term? Many thx for sharing.

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    Replies
    1. Nearing a top a-b-c from the June low. Then lower to around 40 to finish the correction from the Feb. top or to around 44 for wave c of a triangle.

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    2. how high do you think crude oil can go in forming the existing abc top? thx.

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    3. Somewhere between the current high and 54.

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  9. I know you will probably want to kill me for saying this, but to me this is just another worthless stockmarket blog, as they are thousands on the internet. Krasi doesn't have any idea what the stock market will do over the short or long term, he says so himself.
    Again sorry for saying this.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Nothing to kill you for.... I could not care less. I do not care if I am right or wrong. I do not care if someone reads my blog or not... if it is worthless or not.
      But hey I am feeling flattered that from all the worthless stockmarket blogs you have chosen mine:)

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    2. er if its worthless than why are you here commenting?

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  10. If this is worthless as you say, i wonder what you are wasting your time for by hanging around here.

    I know Krasi just for a very short time, but what I can see is awsome, very profound and correct counts.

    God bless you, Krasi, and thank you very much to give the result of your work to others !

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I agree with you 100% what is this guy doing hanging around if this blog is as worthless as he says it is. He must have a lot of time on his hands to be reading this blog when he could easily be doing something else.

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    2. The best way is to ignore this kind of meaning person and meaningless comment. More reply only helps whatever this person is. Just treat him as air

      Delete
  11. any potential target for the current small move high, I mean the small wave 3? Thanks. Then we can expect wave 4 could be?

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    Replies
    1. I do not see clear pattern and forecasts for such such short term moves are not very accurate.
      Either some corrective crap and reverses soon or ugly wave 1(diagonal) than higher 2525.

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  12. yes, my upside targets are range up to 2525 .

    Let's have Krasi some private room.

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  13. I have a question about XLB, so what's the long term outlook? As stock it moves the same pace as QQQ, or say tech sector? But more often they are different cycles? In the long term future, is it possible that sector rotation would favor xlb instead of qqq/biotech? Thanks.

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    Replies
    1. I do not know how sector rotation works. When I look at the chart I do not see any difference with the SP500 and the long term view is the same - important top next year and lower until 2023.

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