Feb 6, 2018

Some thoughts

This is how greed ends.... to quote stupidity caused by greed - "DJ 30k without correction positive thinking".
I repeated two weeks in a row "what goes vertically higher comes the same way lower", look at March 2000 "all the January gains will be wiped out in February".... it is never different it is always the same, because the reason is human greed and stupidity and it does not matter if it is about tulips,bitcoins,volatility or what ever.
First the Bitcoin guys feeling the pain and still buying the dips and now the short volatility traders seeing the trade exploding in their face. The unthinkable happened - VIX doubled in one day, XIV down more than 80% and according the prospect should be liquidated. Volatility suppressed unnaturally around 10 or below for a year and now short volatility traders receive their margin call. Bitcoin looks like a walk in the park:) if you ask me.

So the short volatility trade imploded taking the market lower with it. I have read a few times that this trade is very dangerous, here is one podcats (from minute 12)..... I can not say if there is more positions to be unwinded or not, I am just a chart guy. According to the guy from the podcast ETFs/ETNs like XIV are the least problem.


I hope you did not let greed dictate your actions and took profits. It was a great run since November, but it was time to take your money off the table and go short. What now? The bulls must pray that FED will save the market:), but FED said it will take the punch bowl away and it cares about the bond market where the skyrocketing yields are problem, the stock market is less interesting. It could start QE again when they said they will do the opposite or.... move money out of stocks into bonds. This panic comes right on time, what happened with yields yesterday:) I think they will save the day just to let the stock market drop later hoping it will decline in orderly manner.

So what about the charts, what we know - the move looks like an impulse, usually the panic low is not the low, based on history this moves has the DNA of a sharp correction in a bull market caused by excessive greed, usually a bear market starts slowly and not with a crash.
What we do not know - two options the bull market is over or this is wave IV. How should the price action look like:
- the bull market is over - we have an impulse so this is wave 1, but extreme fear and most of the fuel to the downside is burnt. I would expect wave 2 deep retracement lasting for months so that traders forget the pain and talk about DJ 30k again. Example - August 2015 panic sell off for three days followed by wave B for 3-4 months.
- this is wave IV - this impulse lower is wave A, wave B should follow. It should move quickly higher and retrace at least 50% of the sell off. Examples March 2000 or February 2007 - a-b-c zig-zag with one panic wave and the other one shorter 61,8% Fibo. The current wave is obviously the panic move so after wave B expect wave C=0,681xA.

How will the chart look like in both cases(of course the wave lower could have a few more percent lower) - green the bull market is not over, red the bearish case.
I still think such price action fits better as wave IV, but lets see if we have A-B-C test of MA200 or something else.

19 comments:

  1. you don't think it will break 200d ma?

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    1. At the moment I think it is an a-b-c which will test MA200 and that is all.

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  2. Now can we see it has been bottomed? Because VIX is still hanging high... Thanks. It seems XBI and QQQ cannot go down further? However, both of them are still below MA20 in short term.

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    1. Wave A should be finished. No more VIX at 10:) 15 for a bottom.
      Most indexes have the same pattern, XBI and NDX have similar impulse lower.

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  3. Hi Krasi! Thx for your analysis!
    In terms of timing, you used a monthly for the a-b-c today, isnt it daily? Isnt it more likely to retrace half of the losses in a matter of days? When do you see the 200dma bottom roughly? Couldnt this bounce go to 3000 one way over a couple of months? Thx again!

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    1. It is a daily chart. Yes, the retrace should last only a few days if it is a B wave and those trapped in long position should dump them.
      I think late February should be the cycle low.
      It should go to 3000 March/April maybe first half of May, but first test of the low with more likely lower low with divergences.

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  4. It's very mysterious that UVXY jump huge during after hours trading?? Any reasons? It seems SPX futures is still ok. So why UVXY jump up so much?? Thanks.

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    1. UVXY is based on VIX futures nothing to do with SPX. After the close they are doing rebalancing buying and selling VIX futures.
      Example XIV close around 100 after hours 4.

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  5. HI Krasi, great work!! Let’s see what the futur hold for us!
    Now that A might be over, is it worth a new chart with levels and thoughts? :-)
    Good luck to everybody

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    1. It is a little bit too early, there is too many options - wave A finished or not, wave 4 or B higher yesterday(zig-zag retracing 38,2% which is it? no clue)... if it is B finished or not or it will just continue higher? I avoid to post charts or trade at such moments it leads only to unnecessary confusion.
      Patience the low will be tested then the picture will be more clear.

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  6. Hi Krasi,

    As always I would like to thank you for the great analysis. I have learnt so much from this blog, apart that i'm always too early, I closed my VIX calls just before the plunge :(. I agree there will be no more VIX @10 I think there could be another (unlikely) scenario where this is wave I down, and we have had 1,2,3 and 4 is currently running, then 5 should be coming soon this next / week. I think NIKKEI in the 90' looked similar and never tested previous high just bottom felled down. I can see lots of confusion about VXX/UVXY from blog commentators, I will try to clarify in a post comment in the evening. P.S. I also listen to macrovoices, and i think they made history with their short vol podcasts - especially one with Chris Cole two weeks ago.

    Regards,

    Mily

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  7. This is not too early you can not bet on such rare event. The move was developing like normal impulse lower I have closed half of my position at expected wave 5 low.... DJ jumped 200 points I though perfect pattern and then 1000 points lower:)
    Yesterday wave 4 is very likely scenario, but wave I and the bottom falls is very unlikely.
    - The price is above MA200 it is more likely to test it than to crash, similar message from market breadth.
    - Too much fear too fast.
    - Two indexes DAX and SOX with interesting pattern - expanded flat this is wave 4. The other indexes are just catching up.
    So to sum up if it is wave I is much more likely to see retracement lasting a few months compared to the bottom falls.

    Yes, clarification will be good. I am not volatility expert just watching the charts, but I think some are not understanding this trading vehicles and they are very dangerous if you do not know what you are doing.

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    1. Hi Krasi, what is your target on Soxx and iwm, and do you have set entry pts or waiting for macd to decline again?

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    2. SOXX around 164, IWM 141-143. MACD is too slow to trade the waves of lower degree. You need an oscillator... I use slow stochastic when it is overbought/oversold against the trend.

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  8. How about Gold? It looks like GOLD may continue down to 1300 even lower?? In this sense, GDXJ could retrace back to lower than the bottom at the end of 2017? Initially I thought this retrace is wave 2 and should be 0.618 or something... Thanks.

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    1. I can not say, the patterns are not very clear. It should be corrective move and gold should make one more high.
      Miners have different pattern they are following Silver not Gold. I would wait for a test of MA50(hourly chart) and one more low - lower low with divergences or higher low to confirm reversal.

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  9. Thanks Krasi,

    Could today be seeing the end of b of A , with new lows /re-test of lows to finish A off this week. Then up into opex for B and finally C down into late month . That fits better with your timing plan of a low around 23-28 Feb and would give us a three week correction.

    Thanks for the time you take .

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    1. Yes, it is possible. The problem is corrective waves mutate all the time and the market is nervous.
      That is why I have not posted a chart when asked above.
      It is a zig-zag and it could be just 4 of A or B or a of B or it makes one more high and it is an impulse a of B. EW is not very helpful in this case so I do not try to guess corrective pattern in early stages. The important information is it is corrective.

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  10. Makes sense , thanks . Your broad timing plan helps in the scheme of things .

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