Trading cycle - still buy and very stretched in time. I suspect something unusual is going on(trading and Hurst cycles not in sync), but lets see if it will be confirmed.
This trading cycles are closely correlated to Hurst cycles, but not always exactly the same. And now is one such occasion. For trading counting from top to top it is one trading cycle, but from cycle theory perspective I think it is way too long for one daily cycle which is not even completed. It is more likely to have two 10w cycles 31+XX and 20w/40w cycle high, which means in July we have a low - 20w low.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the only possible count is corrective and most likely w-x-y with c=1,618xa(red). Two more waves 4 and 5 needed to complete the pattern. Alternate is what I have shown last week 5/C... I just preffer to see RSI divergence.
Intermediate term - RSI there is no divergence and showing strength so the odds for 3/c are higher. I would wait for divergence on the hourly and daily chart or impulse to the downside to confirm reversal.
Long term - I think the bull market completed in 2018. Since then a bunch of corrective waves. Currently watching the pattern below wave a or x, but with corrective waves often you have to adjust so stay open minded.
We have another corrective wave - most likely scenario it is part of a bigger corrective pattern less likely wave X and another corrective pattern to follow.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - nothing new divergences and market breadth does not follow the price at all.
McClellan Oscillator - resetting toward the zero line, I expect pop above it before we see a top.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal and divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal and divergence.
Bullish Percentage - flat with divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - oscillating around 75 with divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - bottoming as expected, grinding higher and ignores the indices.
Advance-Decline Issues - broke the trend line connecting the lows so the next move up will be the top.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - it looks like 20d high as expected and next week we should see decline into 20d low. There is high probability the next 20d high could complete the 40w cycle high.
Week 5 or 9 for the 20w cycle. For now I follow the both counts and watch the further price action. We are close to 40w cycle high.
Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Eight for a setup on the weekly chart - another week needed for finished setup. The previous wave W almost managed to complete setup too if you ignore the slight violation of the rule in middle:)
Mister studyofcycles troll where are you? What happened with the diagonal? Why there is w-x-y and a-b-c now? I am confused who is the original and the copy? Can you explain me?
ReplyDeleteThe guy is the best EW counter I know and still makes mistakes and I do not agree often. Start learning instead of worshiping someone.
Krasi,
DeletePls don't compare yourself with other EW counters.
As I have said you are more superior than many counters paid sub or not.
The simple reason is that you combine timing cycles with EW and they need that to be more accurate .
So I suggest you continue wit your great work and ignore the rest.
The troll is comparing... he is accusing me that I am stealing analysis.
DeleteThis is complete nonsense of course and this week proved it one more time when the "copy" appeared before the "original".
Of course that comparison are stupid. No one has a patent on a count there is only few patterns anyway. I can and I will count what I want and I do not care if someone somewhere on Internet counts the same.
It's funny that someone is saying you copied study of cycles, like the site is some kind of gold standard.
DeleteHe may be one of the best wave counters, but he isn't usually right. I view the site for educational purposes only to learn about EW.
Exactly Deja Vu. And what are the "experts" and the sheeple do? Instead of learning from their mistakes they are doubling down on stupidity. Well done!!
ReplyDeleteOh Krasi, why did you need to "activate" those trolls again? Now it's gonna take a while to get rid of them again.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, I'm liking this analysis which suggests that the 10w is behind us:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RGiefIfcIFQ&t=967s
The composite model line has been fairly accurate to date. The only concern I have is I'm not sure if the 10w low is behind us yet, but this analysis says it has because it was expecting a small dip anyway.
I'm planning to attempt a short next week because SPX is reaching the upper trendline from 2013. I think this area has a good chance to be the top.
This is the logical place for the 20w low and I do not like to put the cycles lows at higher low, but some how 20w low in July feels better and we have not seen the 10w low. This fits better with the pattern and market breadth.
DeleteKrasi, why can't the Jun low be a wave 2? Price retraced 29%, which is close to the 30% wave 2 retrace in July 2009. If you consider July 2009 as a wave 2 low, then why are you rejecting the possibility that Jun 2020 could also be a wave 2 low?
ReplyDeleteI'm just trying to understand your logic.
I see only 23,6% retracement which is very very unlikely for w2 and the wave 3 breaks the 0-2 trend line which disqualifies it as impulse count... not to mention other indices which do not confirm such count.
DeleteP.S. the move from 2009 it looks so much like impulse, but it does not feel right - it does not have proper wave 2. I thought many times it looks better like series of zig-zags... I am not surprised Neely counts it as something different diametric pattern.
Hi Krasi, what made you change the long term forecast? You are now showing a much deeper correction and going on past election day. :-) What changed since last week?
ReplyDeleteIt is not changed. Before this week I did not show anything concrete just something lower.
DeleteThis week it is showing time I expect the next leg to continue with the time expansion and to take until the 18m cycle low - the summer next year.
It is too yearly for a pattern. It should be corrective and trying to predict it before it has even begun is useless.
I will draw something concrete on the weekly chart when we see the first wave of the move lower.
:)
ReplyDeleteShort term looks like this - https://invst.ly/rz9dd
ReplyDeleteAfter that we will see if it is 4/c/Y or something bigger.
Krasi, TJ has a very interesting count on NQ:
ReplyDeletehttps://1.bp.blogspot.com/-UVEM3OsAe3w/X0vuzR4hqAI/AAAAAAAAKFo/HJUDmiKV9u0KQmVtgMgH1yw2uBtcUUeKQCLcBGAsYHQ/s1349/NDX%2B%2528Daily%2529%2B2020_08_30%2B%25281_03_15%2BPM%2529%2BThree%2BWaves.png
It makes a lot of sense. Wonder if you have any comments on it?
He mentions the problem itself - this 4/C is too big and it is possible 20w low. That is why I prefer to count it as a wave of higher degree b/Y and C only as alternate scenario.
DeleteThanks. Yes the oscillator also favours one more wave up after the 20d low this week.
DeleteGood morning s&p 1522
ReplyDelete1522 should be the target
DeleteHi Krasi, what are your thoughts on USD? Are you expecting a renewed decline or reversal soon? Thanks
ReplyDeleteIt looks like bottoming with ED currently w3 of it.
DeleteWhat about the Nasdaq waves?
ReplyDeleteIt is the same.
DeleteOne more high?
ReplyDeleteYes, a wave up
ReplyDeleteKrasi, looks like your short-term path went perfectly (above 3520, back below 3500 and now to a new high at 3529 as I type). I wonder if this is 5/C complete now that we have divergences on all RSI time-frames on futures except for daily? The peak in Jan 2018 didn't have a divergence on daily either, but did on 4-hour, 3-hour, etc.
ReplyDeleteTo me the daily trend looks so close to exhaustion on momentum indicators- https://imgur.com/a/PzbmDJI
Interestingly, R2K broke its trend earlier in the month and has just levitated in a tight range around $155 as if it is waiting for the SPX and NDX to finish and all sync up- https://imgur.com/mCFSBE6
I'm pretty confident once we break on SPX and NDX (probably in sync with DJI and NYFANG indexes) then it's game over and we get a hard reversal. Everyone was so bullish on silver early August and then it ran out of momentum and immediately reversed really hard right where you'd expect- https://imgur.com/dzfRf2e
Same with lumber, down 11% in a few days- https://imgur.com/1m8RSgK
And the Nifty 50 in India just did one as well- https://imgur.com/mWnWk67
Tech stocks and FANG are nothing special and neither is the current bid. There isn't any Fed money, that's not how swapping T-bills or MBS for bank reserves even works, not that the public actually ever thinks it through! Most likely this whole recent move is just the usual retail price chasers (yesterday's AAPL/TSLA split clown buyers) mixed with the usual passive flow, just like Jan 18, Oct 18, Feb 20.
Should be an exciting month now that we made it here.
It is possible that 5/c is running, for example DJ did what is should do 38% retracement - https://invst.ly/r-fpb
DeleteBut it will look better if we see a flat for w4 so that we see red days for SP500 too. This will be the RSI divergence on the daily chart. This divergence will be short term 3/c-5/c
There will be no big divergence because there is no 3-4-5 only a-b-c.
Oh yeah, lets not forgot what else has broken out of its recent trend- https://i.imgur.com/INF7QoP.png
ReplyDeleteWhat is your opinion of COVID stocks like CODX, IBIO, AHPI, APT? These followed the VIX up back in Feb and March, do you see another rally?
ReplyDeleteWatching the charts I have the feeling there is more to retrace, but then another surge higher should follow. I do not know maybe vaccine story later....
DeleteIt's looks like the sky is the limit, every day new high
ReplyDeleteEvery day more than one percent with the vix higher
ReplyDeleteI don't always find that it's as easy to spot obvious trend lines on smaller stocks (compared to ETFs and large-caps). I did spot a pretty obvious uptrend on IBIO that was broken in early August-
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/a/X1eqf79
It's a pretty similar pattern to other vaccine stocks like VBIV and NVAX. Now they are all in some sort of downtrend, but it's not clear with most what the path will be, so I wouldn't trade them without a clear trend.
The one exception was AHPI which I posted on that link b/c the downtrend looks well defined and points to Oct/Nov. Honestly, the whole markets could crash and be bottoming by November though.
I'm thinking the narrative that gets attached to this sell-off won't be COVID related, so to me it makes more sense to play it with the VIX or index shorts.
But as a useful tool, I always run any stock I am interested in and see if there are obvious trends to the momentum - http://schrts.co/VMSyTyhS
You need huge participation for reliable pattern, wave etc. analysis. This is a problem with smaller stocks. I am concentrating more and more on a few indexes and that's it.
DeleteS&P 1542, it looks very very strong with a lot of money. liquidity is the name of the game.
ReplyDeletewhy 1542 and not 3542?
DeleteTriangle wave 4, but RSI divergence only on the 4h chart and not on the daily - https://invst.ly/r-rqv
ReplyDeleteNot sure if we will see another w4 of higher degree for RSI divergence on the daily chart or not.
By the way AAPL looks like completed impulse from the late July low.
DeleteIf you look at the cash index hourly chart the indicators RSI/MACD say there is five distinct moves so the leg from the July low should be completed.
DeleteViXY setting up for great weekly buy (~ 18.50) on divergences with indicators.
DeleteGold wave E of triangle?
ReplyDeleteOne more high
ReplyDeletebuy vix, it doesn't care
DeleteMarket will get slammed keep buying
DeleteDJ 38% for wave 5 reached in impulse with extended first wave - https://invst.ly/r-z4t
ReplyDeleteThe same for the SP500 cash index after long sideways triangle w4 - https://ibb.co/C5kxRZ2
I am showing this pattern for a while and seems to work so far. Lets see if reversal will follow.
Now we have the minimum for completed pattern from the March low and it is getting interesting.
AAPL, TSLA, USD, crude oil - there is some action everywhere.
There's the top, no over here is the top...wait there's a top around the corner over here. This is what a "melt up/blow-off top" looks like
ReplyDeleteForget about telling that to Krasi. I do hope the people here are not shorting this rally. It's a loser's game for the past few months. I can't think of a trading strategy that can make use of the potential topping pattern here, and at the same time minimize risk of losing money if this market continues to melt up. It's getting obvious that resistance are not being respected, ie this is turning into a bubble. No way am I going to front run to short a bubble, it's just suicide.
DeleteThere will be plenty of indications the market has turned. This move will end but there hasn't been anything bearish about this move, yet. The internet world drama lied to everyone during a obvious bull-run
DeleteTypical comments not reading at all - saying this is corrective move and I have forecasted the top many times, which I have not. The reason is simple until today possible completed pattern never existed and 40w high has not been reached... it does not matter you do not read.
Delete"There will be plenty of indications the market has turned." - how did this worked last time? Even if there is such you will ignore it... like the last time.
"The internet world drama lied to everyone" - like the bulls were right the last time or maybe this time will be different.
Do not forget to show up when this great bull run is retraced again. I miss all the big mouths at the bottom it is so silent.
Who says you have to short? I have put a chart on the top for trading - I doubt it changed anything emotions are more important. Explained thousand times analysis is not trading and it does not matter emotions as always are more important.
DeleteWhat I am posting is analysis not trading. If analysis is CONFIRMED trading plan is created or trade is triggered.
The strategy is very simple time to take profits and waiting for reversal sign.
Fair enough Krasi. I'm a trader, not an investor. Until support level gets taken out, I'll be long and I'll just keep moving my stops higher until my stops gets taken out. I won't turn bearish until then.
DeleteThis l market feels very similar to 86-87 or Nasdaq 99-00. Same mood, same feel, same arguments from bulls and bears. It's easy to say we're going to crash soon, but honestly how many can actually make money when the crash actually happens? The market will squeeze until the last bears are extinct before it suddenly collapses and not allowing any bears in when it moves down. This is just the way the market works.
Now tell me, what kind of trading strategy you can employ to make money out of this crash with your analysis? With VIX at such high levels, even buying puts is risky. I'm not a sophisticated options trader, so I'll rather be long until the music stops, at least there's a trading strategy which I can use. There's a big difference between trying to predict what the market will do next and understanding what it's doing now.
I'm not interested in argument about who's right or who's wrong or what form of analysis is right. To me, the market is always right and I don't argue with price action. I'm only in the market to make money.
I do not expect crash I expect the decline to last something like 10 months so normal trading will do the job, but it will not be easy because the move will be corrective again.
DeleteBoth bulls and bears are wrong there is no impulses strength or crashes all fake bullshit. All this repeating every time since 2018 and both camps still do not get it.
The size and speed of this move is 100% guarantee it is another fake bullshit - like the decline before that, like the "bull run" before that and so on.
And Unknown did you see it coming? Of course not, there were no indications:)))))))
DeleteToday 20d low?
ReplyDeleteSee below the same question.
DeleteMedian line target about 3490. I'm assuming we go higher... https://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_c2ee5d6a9105a440217cc756e957e964.png
ReplyDeletenot sure why my words came out that way. :(
Deletew4/c will fit perfect especially for NDX, but such 5% crashes in a few hours the probability is low it is w4.
DeleteA few times being wrong:) so I do not buy it anymore.... such 4th waves.
20d low today?
ReplyDeleteIt looks something bigger. I would say another 2-3 days for 5w or 10w low depends on where you count the 20w low - https://invst.ly/s0ela
DeleteThis low could go into 8th
ReplyDeleteYes, it does not look like just finishing.
Deletedip buying still in fashion
ReplyDeleteYes, everybody is busy buying the dip:))) LadyS did not inform us for the new ATH for the day.
Deletethat was my sell signal. No Lady S ATH at 1570
DeleteWhere IS the "Oracle of Canals"?
DeleteMomentum trend lines finally broken - https://imgur.com/a/vfTwtbm
ReplyDeleteI'm glad they ran out of room on a day with no obvious news story trigger for people to explain it all away as the cause. Kind of gives people a peek behind the curtain as to how markets really work, what drives them.
If there was any particular trigger (other than just running out of new buyers at the highs), it may have something to do with this - https://i.imgur.com/olJtsIQ.png
I repeat every time news does not matter. I have posted yesterday that we have completed pattern and there we have it a leg in the opposite direction. I would say running out of new buyers.
DeleteVery dificult to know where 20w low is. I follow the idea from sentient trader 20w low in late june
ReplyDeleteThe problem is other indices have a better looking low in July.
DeleteEven vertical moving like NDX or stocks AAPL TSLA have a clear cut and very good looking 20w low on schedule.
I suppose only in hindsight we can pin the low, when we see more price action.
Krasi, so in fairness to bashing Lady S. and everybody else who was long...at what point did you start shorting? Are you capturing and of this downturn? What was your signal or trigger? I ask to learn, not as a troll.
ReplyDeleteAlso, do you have a price target for UVXY? Thank you
I am not bashing longs - the game WAS long until yesterday. it was long until 40w cycle high - simple. I am bashing guys, which think are very smart(in fact clueless) explaining me how I am wrong big time.... again... and somehow since 2018 every rally is retraced and this one will be retraced again.
DeleteWhen I say it is corrective it does not mean you can not trade long, it means just that it is corrective. Well corrective moves are fully retraced and this is what is pissing off all this guys - I am taking off the table their drugs:)))
Yesterday I am posting analysis careful for the first time we have possible top from the March low and the response - the usual bullshit. The trading strategy is very simple take profits 1/2 if you want is it so difficult.
I am long volatility, UVXY target around 35 then retracement then higher again.
Trigger is close below MA10 so I am waiting with shorting the indices. It was triggered, but very late in the cycle so it is better to wait for the next high. I do not expect crash repeating March. I expect long move like 10 months. No need to hurry the price is well above MA50 after RSI showing strength so the market will not crash. Just compare February MA50 and RSI and you will see - simple TA.
Now the game is watching patiently the price action and figure out if this next high will be lower high or final higher high to short it.
Current thoughts - this is not how w4 behaves 5% lower in one day, it is too big compared with all the other declines from the late June low, it is comparable only with the bigger degree declines in May and June so it should be of higher degree - short said preliminary analysis lower high.
will be volatile with USA debates coming up & getting closer to election..
DeleteI agree with your UVXY call, Krasi. Using VIXY instead, price on both will retest recent lows (UVXY-18.75, VIXY-19.38) and print bullish divergences on the weekly charts with higher lows on respective indicators. Should get a pretty good run with divergences on the weekly timeframe.
DeleteAnd 20w low?, it would be 24-25 weeks from March low
ReplyDeleteThere is no such long 20w cycles.... there is in fact such cycle in the market around 24-25 weeks, but it is not Hurst cycle.
DeleteBounced at the daily 18ma, I wonder if that was the dip or we go to lower BB
ReplyDelete10w low in these few days makes a lot of sense, as the next 10w low will probably be around election. However in that case we'll likely see a higher high first in the next 10w high (maybe not IWM, but other indices pretty likely). This market usually has short duration for the move down into a major low. In short still looks like wave 4 for me, probably bottoming at the 3400 region. I'll look to go long there for the final move up.
ReplyDeleteIt is nice and simple, but there is a problem - this supposed wave 4 does not behave like w4 and it is too big. NDX is the perfect candidate much more clear pattern with one wave missing:
Delete- what is expected small and choppy sub-wave iv/c/Y/of something
- what we have something which is bigger than any pullback since the March low in one day
I think we should listen to the market.... but lets give it a chance if it stops now and reverses.
I shorted the Nasdaq from 11000 and the and the other part on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, not because of krasi, because of the extreme overbought, I expect it to 10000
ReplyDeleteAnd I use the astrology, it's help me on February, now it's the same star, and it's going to be worth, it looks like 2008
ReplyDeleteI think we will see the top again, something like double top
ReplyDeleteI want to see decrease in the money, for me it's must, else it's keep going ATNH
ReplyDeleteNasdaq and s&p stop at the bottom of the nice canal so, I don't think they break it so easy
ReplyDeletethey don't break easy until they do
DeleteNDX this looks like clear impulse no idea what else it could be - https://invst.ly/s0snn
ReplyDeletenow 5=1,618x1 this should be a short term bottom.
Deleteso 4 is dead
ReplyDeleteIt is way too big the only way to fit 4th wave is from the March low.
DeleteNDX is so big that even this does not work.
yeah, it's huge
DeleteYou have to count another wave X with Z to extend the move from the March low.... very low probability if you ask me.
Delete1/1/C road to 2300
ReplyDeleteI hop so Anonymous, for now all break the canal
ReplyDeleteBreak just the little canal
ReplyDeleteOK and what about the hypothesis that this was an A leg of a wave 4 triangle? Seems pretty radical for a triangle start to me....
ReplyDeleteGiven up all the decline, on the way to more ATHs
ReplyDeleteI think it is like 11 june
ReplyDeletesmall abc today it looks like. More doom for Tuesday i say
ReplyDeleteThe only way I see how this could be w4 is to make one step back like this - https://invst.ly/s0xb-
ReplyDeleteIt is too big and the only comparable decline is from June.
What I do not like is RSI is making lower low for w2 which is very unlikely. RSI shows the real pattern and it says it is a-b-c into the end of June. That is why I use the higher low for end of a pattern.
But it will be nice to see double top:)
SPY 325 prints early next week
ReplyDelete