Trading cycle - buy signal. Now you know why the confirmation is two closes you need to filter the false breaks below/above MA10.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the last zig-zag from the January low is too short in time to be e-f-g compared to the previous a-b-c. It is more likely this is just e and next we will see f for 20w low followed by final g.
Intermediate term - spending more time up/sideways is important information. Now I think the pattern with the white labels is more likely. The difference is the decline for the 20w low will be of a lower degree b not B. For the neowave pattern this is f from the November low and not F from the March low.
As long as the price stays above 3650 watching the white labels. If we see bigger drop to the lower trend line than the red labels.
Long term - the bull market completed in 2018. Since then a bunch of corrective waves. Currently I think this rally should be a corrective wave of a bigger pattern most likely triangle. Look at NDX we have corrective wave which is 1,618 bigger than the previous one which could be only b of a triangle. I think the best looking pattern is Neely's triangle.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - very weak, pointing lower with divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - short term divergence, but still above 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - heading lower and sligthly below 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - higher lows, building divergences.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower after lower highs and divergence.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - low-to-low count looks ok, next we should see decline into 20d low, which will mean the 20w cycle turning lower.
High-to-high two options - 20w cycle with 21+ weeks length or three 10w cycles with length 7 weeks. They are even shorter than low-to-low cycles so the second option makes more sense and fit with the pattern. Anyway the point is 10w or 20w high and turn lower into 10w/20w low.
Week 12 for the 20 week cycle.
just a thought / observation ( and this may not fit with Elliott or Neowave rules)...look at 2 week calendar cycles from top of A on Nov 9.That would give you peak of G coming early next week ( perhaps at just over 3900). Krasi - i have been reading you for a while now....this is a great blog and many thanks for it.
ReplyDeleteHi Anonymous, are you just disaggreeing with the timing of G here but saying the same level as shown by Krasi? I think you may be right at I have been thinking a top taking place somewhere around 27th of Jan. so you think we go directly higher first few days of the next week?
ReplyDeleteyes, pretty much ( and it is only a very minor disagreemnt!) ....another two new highs towards 3900 would do it for me. it doesnt matter if those new highs take 2 days or 5 to happen....so long as they do happen !
ReplyDelete....and, looking at Krasis chart again I think my count was erroneous ( apologies) and the two calendar week count is in sync with his apart from f on the 19th and therefore g early week of Feb 1 . All adds up to the same thing....
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteIf rally into *jan 27*..so 28 low..29 high, feb 1 low..3or4 high...5or8 low..and rally into...market will be very choopy..
DeleteYes, from Nov 9th this 20 day high to high cycles are running with length two weeks.
ReplyDeleteI expect 20w low so we need to see something bigger than the 11-15 Jan decline one degree higher - the minimum is this f-wave.
It should easily take minimum two weeks then you have the g-wave. In diametric the waves take similar time, looking at c and e 2-3 weeks.
Is there a target range for the f wave and 20w low? Thanks!
ReplyDeleteI guess somewhere around MA50.
DeleteThe first comment pointed out that we have tops at 2 calendar weeks(10 trading days), FOMC is often top/bottom and watching the current price action I would say we saw 10d low yesterday so tomorrow we should see the next 20d/5w/10w high followed by a zig-zag lower for the 20w low - https://invst.ly/tl3jz
ReplyDeletewhat are your thoughts on uvxy?
ReplyDeleteUp and down until we see important high and then big up.
DeleteOther option is yesterday 5w low?
ReplyDeleteOnly 5 day from the last significant low so it should be only 10d and not 20d/5w low.
DeleteBy the way it looks like 5w low for the European indices, not so good for the US indices.
DeleteMarket is very close to top. Last time it was spce now its gamestop. Whenever you have garbage stocks going up like this the top is near.
ReplyDeleteYes, but I still think we will see down up like Jan-Feb last year before the big plunge.
DeleteCould it be a large move down and then bounce but no more all the highs?
DeleteI do not think so, look at other indices it is corrective.
Deleteupdated chart?
DeleteNothing much to update - https://invst.ly/tm00-
DeleteThank you
Delete(this is Anonymous from top of this comment thread) like Krasi I think we need a new high (c 3900 +) sometime soon ....and then a big plunge....perhaps one scenario is investigations into price manipulation of eg Gamestop ( and Tether/ Bitcoin) which will then feed on itself as long margin selling is unwound...
ReplyDeleteKrasi, do you think this move is likely to take spx to 200ma since it's big?
ReplyDeleteNo, there is support levels 3650 and 3550 I do not think we will see the index below this levels
Delete27 swing low and rally into 8 feb .let see
ReplyDeleteMore likely continuation lower.
DeleteTest
ReplyDeleteThe canal is still up
ReplyDeletewhat do you think about precious metal like gold or silver? possible short squeeze?
ReplyDeleteNo idea. Gold is not the same like some share, which has more than 100% short the free float so that you can squeeze it.
Deleteyesterday may have been the 20 week low from late september. blowoff for a week or so over 3900 sp underway before the beginning of a 2 year bear market into late 2022. krasi comments always welcome. thanks for your work.
ReplyDeleteJP
I think it will take longer the 20w low and the top.
Delete2022 is a 4 year high after that we should see a bear market for 2 years.
thank you .
ReplyDeleteJP
Krasi are you expecting more up into friday? Like this maybe? https://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_1b2aa32ee2a838726a10e396a0b905b9.png
ReplyDeleteDifficult to say... another complex corrective pattern. If you look at DAX and DJ the correction begun earlier at 8th of January and there is aready two legs lower.
DeleteKrasi.. thank you for your hardwork & sticking to your guns... like last year, looks like seeing that sell off like you been talking about..
ReplyDeleteIt is too early there is one more high.
Deletenot chasing, selling into strength... not getting greedy..
DeleteHey Krasi ,
ReplyDeleteSupport at 3650 and 3550 is obvious from the charts - in fact everywhere you look , everyone has the same numbers . It seems highly unlikely the mkt will just spike to one of those zones and simply rally to a new high or at least the lesson of the last few years is that every rally goes further than anyone can imagine and every dip faster & further too .
It seems a fair assumption that there's a surprise coming to this dip - either we don't make it to to one of those levels or more likely they spike it below . To me ,3460ish would be the next lower zone , albeit one that would then confirm the diagonal pattern
this is Anonymous from first comment above again ( will change handle after this to Snudge) ....to Anonymous just above - maybe watch current Bitcoin move to see if it reaches a final high. If Bitcoin can, SPX can....
ReplyDelete