Trading cycle - sell signal. The price is below MA10 for three days and RSI broke below the trend line. We saw a turn lower into daily cycle low, but 26 days is too short another 1-2 weeks lower will look better.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - I see corrective pattern lower... more of this double zig-zags. Smaller one with the white labels for b/f-wave. Bigger one the green a-b-c for B/F-wave.
Intermediate term - waiting to see the size of the decline for the degree of the waves - b/f or B/F.
I see only corrective declines so expect one more high to complete the move from the March low. Interesting is if RSI will touch/break the major trend line from the March low - this already occurred on the weekly chart.
Long term - the bull market completed in 2018. Since then a bunch of corrective waves. Currently I think this rally should be a corrective wave of a bigger pattern most likely triangle. Look at NDX we have corrective wave which is 1,618 bigger than the previous one which could be only b of a triangle. I think the best looking pattern is Neely's triangle.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - pointing lower, most of them in the middle of their ranges so no signs for a bottom.
McClellan Oscillator - slightly oversold with small divergence so probably higher for a few days.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - spike higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - next week we should see 2-3 days up for 20d high, then final turn lower for 20d/5w/10w/20w low.
Week 13 for the 20 week cycle. It turned lower and RSI confirms it.
Thanks
ReplyDeleteThis drop can go all the way down to 3250, there is no way to tell. If it drops below 3200 this may even be the real top. Corrective waves are almost impossible to count.
ReplyDeleteThere is no divergence in the AD line, which is why people are skeptical this is the top. Almost every major top has had a divergence.
DeleteFeb-March 2018 correction had no divergence in AD line. THere is so many options right now it is almost impossible to predict using EW theory rn, which is why I say it is better to use support/resistance levels , and cycle analysis.
DeletePull up the NYSE common stock only on stockcharts. Symbol !ADLINENYC. You will see the divergence.
Deleteare you talking about Feb-March 2018 correction? I did that and NYAD peaks on March 12th, there is no divergence.
DeleteSorry, thought you were talking about the march crash.
DeleteYou're right there was no divergence in Feb-March 2018. That was a 300 point drop.
I have the exact same feeling of this going towards 3300ish and then we only make a lower high. would really love to see if thats the possibility from the author. right now, everyone is expecting this to be only gloing to 3500ish and then one more high before a bear market or even a resumption of a bull market for those who are permabulls (which is not even a point to disucss here).
ReplyDeleteThere will be another high, there is no signs for important high.
DeleteHead and shoulders hourly on nq suggests 12500 target. May not be the bottom but an area of interest short term
ReplyDeleteHi Krasi, social media stuff is driving silver price higher. Coincidentally, in your long term update, you were forecasting 9 year high for silver. Do you think it is heading there so is this something else?
ReplyDeleteIt is 9y cycle high, this is month 18 and we have 18+19+18 months for 4y/9y high.
DeleteThis mob raids come exactly at the time for the tops not only silver... just a coincidence:)
Thanks, this is indeed very intriguing!
Delete110 pts off the overnight low -lol
ReplyDeletea of B up or maybe all of B if it heads towards 3800 without a break ?
This should be a/B more time is needed for B.
DeleteRabbit
ReplyDeleteIt's so funny how media is saying this is unprecedented. Look at history and this is nothing. 1920s was alot worse in terms of public attention and involvement.
ReplyDeleteLooks like a bull trap in silver. That may be even more interesting than gme
ReplyDeletePossible zig-zag higher so b-c up still coming.
DeleteSomething like that - https://invst.ly/to0fn
DeleteNice, that would make sense to make more rsi divergence
Deletehigher odds now that B up in ES futures may conclude today . Resistance is 3800/5 - who knows because b waves have recently gone beserk , but around here should at least end a of b if not the lot .
ReplyDeletewere at gap resistance 3836, i think it's there we turn, but hey the whole market is on WTF mode
Deletei think last sunday overnight was the 5 week low. we should see new ATH before the expected 20 week low end of february. last week was the entire correction no B/C wave left.
ReplyDeleteJP
that may be true given the way it sliced through resistance...
ReplyDeleteKrasi, what the reason to go down, we are seeing the and of the Corona by the vaccine, we are after the crazy election, every thing is cool
ReplyDeletethe reason will be other people selling. what else you need?
DeleteI doubt the correction is over.
ReplyDeleteI would say sideways corrective pattern and possible 5w low instead of 20d like this - https://invst.ly/tocfk
4h chart with RSI - this is not typical RSI divergence it looks more like a-b-c move, which translates in possible expanded flat B - https://invst.ly/tof91
ReplyDeleteAs always corrections and especially the b-waves are difficult to predict.
new ath for NQ today , then the bears need to step up again ...
ReplyDeletetarget for pullback on the S&P? Thanks! Neeley is calling for a top and big drop
ReplyDeleteIs Neeley saying the top is in, or a top is coming like what Krasi is saying?
DeleteNeely is a joke. There is a reason he has to hustle trading courses all the time. He can't make money trading his own application.
DeleteIt is too early for a top at least a month.
DeleteI do not have a target because I do not know what kind of corrective pattern we have.
SPX gap filled. Are you short now Krasi?
ReplyDeleteNo, I am just watching. This is not something big... just small trades CFD up and down.
DeleteHi Krasi, do you think DXY is headed to 93+. Looks like trend reversal atleast for the short term.
ReplyDeleteA little bit higher, but I expect one more low... everything is moving in sync.
DeleteI am a little surprised that in the last few days stocks haven't pulled back inspite of DXY rising by more than half a point.
Deletemetals are certainly noticing
DeleteSome nice divergence building with that new ATH in snp. Reckon touching the upper channel at 3900 could be a good sell opp
ReplyDeleteNeely expects a huuuuuuge drop end of February early March
ReplyDeleteDrop will conform a couple of months
Is he right? We will see
This timing looks much better... it is possible.
Deletees would need to close below 3850 today to suggest this rally is a b wave .Otherwise the weekly close above the jan highs will imply higher prices to come in FEb and that this is a c/5 up .
ReplyDeleteb-wave died two days ago... too strong for too long. Now you need to count expanding triangle which is not very likely. We saw the 20w low with one missing 20d cycle - it happens.
DeleteI don't think that's right to rule the b out 100% . One thing we've all learnt is that such statements of certainty are frequently proved wrong , followed by comments like "it happens" . High odds maybe , but it's not dead as you suggest
ReplyDeleteOnly triangles are left.... it is too fast it retraced in less time the previous decline.
Deletei think we may get a large ending diagonal starting with sunday overnight low which was either a 5 week low or the entire 20 week low. we should have a big retracement next week. we'll see.
ReplyDeleteJP
20 week low is more likely... 5 week low if a triangle is running with this higher high.
DeleteTLT broke down at the beginning of January. I still do not understand how you did not see it...Krasi, i am sorry to say but you should have not missed a move like that...
ReplyDeleteit is possible monday was 10w low, it would be longer than usually but some analist think so
ReplyDeleteIt does not fit with the pattern. Long 10w cycles look differently they are strong and not choppy.
DeleteHi Krasi, would it be possible to post your prediction for DXY and TLT (3-6 months out) in your weekly update today?
ReplyDeleteUSD - https://invst.ly/tq2wf
DeleteTLT - https://invst.ly/tq2xm
Благодаря!!
Delete