Trading cycle - buy signal. Price and RSI are above the MAs. Very short cycle... it could be a fake signal, the weak spot of this trigger is sideways corrections, but again until we see more than 50% retracement it is up.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - I would say b/f wave completed and zig-zag higher is running.
It seem like we have one zig-zag up for a next week we should see a decline for b or what ever it is.
Intermediate term - I see one big zig-zag up. You can count it as W-X-Y(white) classic EW, but we do not have impulses. We have series of seven zig-zags so A-B-C(yellow) the C-wave is a diametric.
We saw the bottom of B/d-wave and the final zig-zag is running. According to the cycle analyses it should take 4-5 weeks and I have adjusted the wave degrees accordingly.
Long term - the bull market completed in 2018. Since then a bunch of corrective waves. Currently I think this rally should be a corrective wave of a bigger pattern most likely triangle. Look at NDX we have corrective wave which is 1,618 bigger than the previous one which could be only b of a triangle. I think the best looking pattern is Neely's triangle.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned up, most likely we saw the low.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - turned up.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - turned up.
Bullish Percentage - tuned up.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned up, nearing 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - testing the lows again.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned up.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - short 20w cycle with one missing 20d cycle. It is not the first time I see such thing. There is no perfect tool.
At least 20d high it could be 5w too, next should be a decline into 20d low.
Week 1 for the 20 week cycle. Most likely we have completed 20w cycle with length 13 weeks. Despite the very short length I think this is the more likely outcome. In fact if you look at the previous two 20w lows you will see the same - the second 10w cycle was very short only 5-6 weeks long. So it is not an exception, the same is repeating for the third time.
Hello Krasi,what do you think about this crazy Oil?
ReplyDeleteExactly the same pattern and cycles like the indices.
Deletei enjoy your posts, but you are being less than honest when you say higher as expected. last week you were looking for a 20d cycle lower, and short term you mention sell signal, etc. an honest post would say the cycle was much much shorter than expected. i see the part about mid term expecting another cycle up, i see it. not sure last week really predicted up if i read it 5 times. just sayin'. i know you will take offense, no offense meant.
ReplyDeleteWhich part of "but this is something different" do you not understand?
Deleteyeah, that called it for sure. maybe the part where you said lower for 1-2 weeks, and no mention of a snap back in 3 days to go higher? dont take too much offense, no one gets this market right. but i cant find anything in last weeks post that expected higher almost immediately. so its disingenuous to say it. sorry.
DeleteWhich part of the following do you not understand? "Short term cycles - next week we should see 2-3 days up for 20d high"
DeleteHave you read the last week post at all?
i did. unfortunately i read 'Short term - I see corrective pattern lower... more of this double zig-zags. Smaller one with the white labels for b/f-wave. Bigger one the green a-b-c for B/F-wave."
Deletei see your other post under hurst cycles. seems you are calling it both ways. that is convenient but not very clear. i know you get super defensive about your posts from having read very angry and vindictive posts from you over the years. sorry no offense, but i read your technical perspective and put greater weight on it.
Which is the same like cycles - higher for B wave and final move lower.
DeleteToo much higher - this is something different not B.
Where is problem?
You have problem understanding and combining the different tools. Do not blame me.
I think it still cannot be ruled out that the end of January was only 5 weeks low, look at the ibex, it is very clear, 21-12 10w low, 28-01 5w low with 26 days, now 5w high from 08-01 and end February 5-10-20w low.
ReplyDeleteand russell 04-01 10w low, 29-01 5w low 18 days
DeleteReferring to IBEX five week cycles are 4 not 6 weeks long. Speed and size are clear we have a low.
DeleteThere will be 5w low the end of February many will count it as the 20w low and this will be wrong.
O sea bajadas hasta finales de enero?. En las timings de Elliot que utilizo la semana del 15 de febrero me da como un cambio de tendencia anual. Gracias. Javier
DeleteYes, the low January an no heading higher for the final high.
DeleteI think about 4 more week before the reversal.
what dose neely says now that spx is ath again?
ReplyDeleteHe is saying that he will re-write his count and if it exceeds 4000, B will go to 4500 and then crash.
DeleteAnd if 3662 gets breached, bull market is toast
DeleteNeely's been calling an imminent top for months. Bears are throwing in the towel.
DeleteKrasi, don't you think we start the c wave of C in the weekly chart?
ReplyDeleteNo idea what c of C weekly is.
DeleteNeely is now saying that if the s and p surpasses 4000 it may go to 4500. This guy is killing me.....In his youtube video he was talking about the end of the financial world and a major catastrophe before or shortly after the election, now s and p 4500 is possible..... I'm not impressed, he is all over the place .... maybe a bit of ritalin twice a day will set him straight....
ReplyDeletePros
DeleteThey look semi-cool. Fit them to data that has already passed (please refrain from forecasting as people will be able to tell you are an imbecile when price goes opposite from your wave count) - along with fibs and harmonic patterns. This will give your friends and family the illusion that you are pursuing a career in a fancy and exciting field.
sorry nothing to see here.
Cons
That shit dont work - very subjective.. total waste of time and space
Ive said it before many times and I will say it again, in an industry where the main goal should be to develop and backtest a process that you can follow OBJECTIVELY in your live trading, we have bullshit like elliot wave theory floating around.
I made a joke/nojoke thread calling out fibs because they are also laughable, but Elliot waves are the granddaddy of all laughable tools used in the markets. Stick any more than 2 elliot wavers in a room and let them plot their cute little abcd1234 counts on their charts over an extended amount of candlesticks and you will get 2 different results - subjective.
Definitely close to a top when the clueless experts show up to explain again how EW does not work.
DeleteUseless rant just to show that you do not know shit about EW and definitely you can not make a difference between analysis and trading.
99% of the so called elliott wavers are guys like you, thinking that first grade knowledge counting to five and knowing the first three letters of the alphabet makes them EW experts.
"develop and backtest a process that you can follow OBJECTIVELY" - my ass like last year I heard a ton of bullshit about economic models etc. blah blah and the only tool which saw the 30% correction was EW not to be mistaken with the 99% wanna be elliott wavers.
When you are so smart and developed and back tested objective process enlighten us with your models. When and at what price to expect the top and what happens after that?
DeleteHaha that's very funny!
ReplyDeleteBut is it even remotely possible to predict exact timeline and extent of such crazy moves? I don't think there is any tool or incubator to predict this. So the best anyone can do is adjust the forecast. Price is king, there is no other option.
Not really funny just showing how clueless he is - he can not use EW, he can not make a difference between analysis and trading.... but he is an expert developed and back tested a process which he can follow Objectively.
DeleteAbout trading it is simple I do not need fancy back tested models - MA10 daily and weekly.
About analysis he is even more clueless than an elliot waver... because since 2018 the only model which can help you is EW and everything else is useless in this environment.
"About trading it is simple I do not need fancy back tested models - MA10 daily and weekly."
DeleteLOL. You don't even trade EW. A moving average like the rest of the sheep. Basically your a buy n hold guy. Comical.
Another clown, which has no clue what I am talking about.....
DeleteHi Krasi, in the DXY chart you provided last week, you show dollar gaining significant strength in 2021 and into 2022. The 4 year high for indices is also forecasted in 2022. Can both rise in unison? I was under the impression that rising dollar would put pressure on equities.
ReplyDeleteProbably the low will not be synchronized like 2008-2011 for example.
DeleteMarch 2020 was not about the USD, only the final move were in sync.
To me looks like we're just about there on SPX.....just reached my target in my time frame. Ref my respect for Krasi's work and views ( ie maybe rallying for longer) I will only put on one third short....further short one third on two down days, further one third when MACD breaks its signal line.
ReplyDeleteKrasi - thanks for keeping me out of the short side till now !
ReplyDeleteif it goes wrong 100% my fault not yours !
ReplyDeleteIt is a little bit early... a few more weeks.
DeleteWhen is the latest do you expect the 18m high? Can it stretch into April?
DeleteTheoretically it should be in April, but it seems the cycles are running short, pattern and indicators do not like they will extend for another two months.... March is more likely.
DeleteKrasi, this is the last week to reach 18 month high?
ReplyDeleteNo, there is another 4 weeks according to the current cycle count I am following.
DeleteSo we have to go down and up again in the canal?
ReplyDeleteI think so
DeleteKrasi Feb 18 Feb 19 top?
ReplyDeleteI think this is too early...
DeleteI believe that the word you want is "channel"
ReplyDeleteKrasi....great blog. Thank you! Do you have any thoughts about the size/scale of predicted long term correction (c?)?
ReplyDeleteAt the moment the expectation is for lower low minimum 2100.
DeleteThanks Krasi
DeleteKrasi, do you see a bull flag?
ReplyDeleteLook at 3890, a very strong support