Trading cycle - buy signal after 20w low... nothing much to say.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - I see a zig-zag up as expected and now most likely this b-wave running.
Intermediate term - I see one big zig-zag up. You can count it as W-X-Y(white) classic EW, but we do not have impulses. More likely series of zig-zags A-B-C(yellow) with the C-wave as a diametric. Now this b/f-wave should follow.
Long term - the bull market completed in 2018. Since then a bunch of corrective waves. Currently I think this rally should be a corrective wave of a bigger pattern most likely triangle. Look at NDX we have corrective wave which is 1,618 bigger than the previous one which could be only b of a triangle. I think the best looking pattern is Neely's triangle.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - pointing up, with divergences so far.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - pointing up, divergence so far.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - pointing up, divergence so far.
Fear Indicator VIX - testing the lows again.
Advance-Decline Issues - testing the highs again.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - NDX shows more clear the cycle count I am watching, it is the same for the SP500. 20d low this week, close to 5w high and soon it should turn lower into 5w low.
Week 2 for the 20w cycle.
Two interesting charts, which are important as a clue for the direction of the market... just drawn quickly a few vertical lines:)
SVXY 20w and 40w highs one more time down and up to complete a zig-zag and 18m cycle high.
TSLA not very long history, but it seems the 4 year cycle lows and highs are working very good. I see huge a-b-c from the beginning and one smaller from 2019 at 4y high with double RSI divergence on the weekly chart.... difficult to be bullish.
what is the 4 year high price target for tesla? Looks like $1250?
ReplyDeleteI think one more zig-zag up to 1050.
Deletemy 2 cents. I don't think we top until April. We will probably go sideways for the next month. This action is like summer seasons very boring and slow grind up, but this spring/summer looks very bearish.
ReplyDeleteThere is such option lets see the next two weeks.
Deletehttps://m.youtube.com/watch?v=tro2XLe8tNI&feature=youtu.be
ReplyDeleteNew vid from Sentient Trader regarding Hurst Cycles..
What's the tl:dr?
DeleteHe's bullish now.
Deletethoughts on TLT?
ReplyDeleteClose to 18 month low and jump higher for a few months, then lower again.
DeleteKrasi...please say that is going to go up like you did two weeks ago...so i know for sure that it will go down...sorry if i am been a bit sarcastic...but it was an obvious break down that you should have not missed!
ReplyDeleteYou are getting excited at the end of a trend. There is no break out.
DeleteBreak DOWN was in January Krasi...I got exited then...10 points ago(when premiums were super cheap)...it is ok to say.."i was wrong" every once in a while...thanks...
DeleteAfter established trend lower for 5 months another 5% is not a break down it is just continuation lower. Breaking down from what ?!?!? There is no break down there is no new move starting the same old one completing.
DeleteIf you call this break down fine I do not care.
I will appreciate it if you cut the crap.
I'm seeing mid-March being a potential major top based on my cycles.
ReplyDeleteThis is what my high-to-high count is showing.
DeleteAlso, there is no guarantee we will retest last year March lows during the next drop. We may only drop to 2900 to 2300.
ReplyDelete30%-40% decline is still big enough and something different than "the market is so strong".
DeleteThe question is when they start to go down, from 4000 or 4500
ReplyDeleteAround 4100 is the perfect target. There is three different Fibo measurements in this area from three different degree of waves.
DeleteHola Krasi. Leí tu mensaje de la semana pasada sobre el Ibex. Dijiste que a finales de febrero un mínimo de 5w. Eso se corresponde con caer por debajo de 7.757,50.
ReplyDeleteY luego subir hasta mediados de marzo donde ya viene la corrección.
Saludos. Javier
Krasi, what do you say about the bitcoin?
ReplyDeleteRipe for 18m top and decline maybe wave-4 the final top should be in 2022 like everything else.
DeleteAfter a long time, there seems broad weakness in the market across breadth. Would you agree?
ReplyDeleteDo you think its heading into 5w low following the forecast?
It seems it is declining into 5w low ideally a few more days. Yes, market breadth is this time weaker right on schedule for a top.
DeleteDo you think Nasdaq will follow similar path as S+P or is that index in its own orbit nowadays?
ReplyDeleteIt can make slightly higher low instead of lower low, but overall the same path.
DeleteIt looks like they are going up again, the liquidity is amazing, I see a lot of money go inside
ReplyDeleteIt's very interesting it it's end, when and how?
ReplyDeleteThere is no volume despite the upward bias. Or am i seeing it wrongly?
ReplyDeleteI do not know, I do no watch volume it is not reliable indicator.
DeleteHi Krasi, do you think the indices are reaching a point where they can reverse hard any moment or do you still think there is room left for a blow off top in the next few weeks?
ReplyDeleteSudden hard reversal is more likely I am starting to doubt that they will make it another three weeks.
DeleteIt is all about rates! TLT breaking down hard...just like Krasi was saying all along..
ReplyDelete