Trading trigger - buy signal. 46 days turn lower into the next daily cycle low?
Analysis - sell the rips, time to get out, potential major top.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - more price action is needed to make some conclusion. If this is not an impulse and reversal it could be some b-wave like this(DJ with 20d highs) - https://invst.ly/wlkh1
Intermediate term - I see three zig-zags with roughly the same length in time W-x-Y-x-Z from the March.2020 low. Reaction after testing the trend lines.... still waiting for more price action.
Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow. MACD and RSI look very "bullish".
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no change, at least short term top. Is it something more - we have to wait and see.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal, reached overbought area.
Bullish Percentage - below 70 like double top.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - scratching 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - higher low so far... double bottoms short term and intermediate term.
Advance-Decline Issues - very weak, lower highs and turning lower.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - we saw 20d high and now at 20d low as expected, but the intermediate term cycles are not very clear....
Week 6 for the 20w cycle. Long term I am expecting 4 year cycle high. The 18m low still not clear - either in June on time or late September the case with one extra 20w cycle so that time adjusts for the missing one from last year.
I don't think we get a long-protracted drop. One of Nelly/Elliott theory is that the longer the B wave compared to A the closer C wave will be to A. The B wave has been going on for almost 2 years now. I think the crash will be violent and quick lasting 2-3 months tops.
ReplyDeleteHis version of the triangle is wrong. The statement that wave lasting 5 weeks is of the same degree as another lasting 21 months is nonsense. According Neely the time difference between two waves of the same degree should not be more than three times.
DeleteIf there is a triangle at all it has begun in Jan.2018 and wave A lasted 27 months so B is still shorter and the theory of short C is dead.
I'm not talking about a triangles. I'm talking about the Feb March crash in 2020 was an a wave.
DeleteThis was his last pattern I know - it does not matter still the same.
DeleteNo Feb March crash in 2020 was c-wave completing the pattern from Jan.2018 and not the begging of a new pattern.
March 2020 definitely had the characteristics of C. And you're saying the next down will be a larger degree C and much more time?
Deletesurely this must be the top now huh buddy? almost 500 points higher than your insulting everyone top. lmfao. youre a joke, but you dont know how absolutely funny you are!
ReplyDeleteDo you think dollar is ready to take off?
ReplyDeleteMore likely a-b-c is completing.
DeleteSo the dolar is going to get down?
ReplyDeleteDJ looks more clear, the usual double zig-zag pattern fitting with cycles too - https://ibb.co/GM0X2YD
ReplyDeleteNice call Krasi, you saved me some pain
DeleteThe indices are very strong but there is so much selling going on. Quiet interesting. Do you think we are very close to the top?
ReplyDeleteSimilar to DJ for completed pattern and cycle I want to see something like this - https://invst.ly/wnhaz
DeleteI am guessing you expect something similar to QQQ/NDX. They are probably closer to pattern completion.
DeleteWhat do you think about EURUSD? Can you please post medium term chart?
ReplyDeleteThis is what I see - https://invst.ly/wnvcz
DeletePlaying with NDX it looks interesting - https://invst.ly/wnvob
ReplyDeleteOne simple wave W and one complex Y with sub-waves - this is how zig-zsg should be.
Y=W in arithmetic scale and Y=0,6xW in log scale and w/Y=y/Y.
NYSE and DJ diverging moving lower... it smells like the TOP.