Trading trigger - sell signal, close to a low so it is a better idea to wait for the next high if you want to sell.
Analysis - sell the rips, time to get out, potential major top.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - waiting for more price action one option is impulse c/Z completed or complex wave b/Z running.
Intermediate term - I see three zig-zags with roughly the same length in time W-x-Y-x-Z or possible W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y. Another reaction after testing the trend lines.... waiting to see how big.
Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow. MACD and RSI look very "bullish" - multiple divergences.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower, waiting to see just short term top or something more.
McClellan Oscillator - nearing oversold level.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower at 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower at 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - spike higher, we need higher high to confirm reversal.
Advance-Decline Issues - heading lower, nearing oversold level.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - lower into 20d low as expected. This should be 10w low... the highs look messy next week we should see turn higher for 5w high. Most bullish case another 5 weeks and 10/20/40w high. Most bearish case we saw 4y top.
Week 8 for the 20w cycle. Long term I am expecting 4 year cycle high. The 18m low more likely in late September the case with one extra 20w cycle so that time adjusts for the missing one from last year.
I was thinking we saw 1-2 of the next larger 3 on Friday. If we gap down again Sunday and have heavy selling next week it will surprise the majority. I looked at some YouTube video of Tom Lee saying "buy the dip" on Friday. Almost all comments were in agreement - Fwiw. Thanks Krasi.
ReplyDeleteAnd 5w low in mid november?
ReplyDeleteIt is possible... I have posted below before seeing your comment.
DeleteSpeculating with 5/10w cycle highs/lows - https://invst.ly/wqdao
ReplyDeleteOne way to have working high/low sequence.
David H (from his latest YouTube video) thinks indices are heading into 20w cycle trough. Is that possible? If so, isn't that bullish?
ReplyDeleteHe is showing 3 different scenarios. I am showing one of them which makes most sense(see the previous comment). The other two does not look very likely.
DeleteOn course for a low today/tomorrow imo. Harmony would be around 4500/4510 , but you rarely get that in this game .
ReplyDeleteThen we see what the rebound looks like into mid month before seeing whether the top is in or if we have a 5-6 week final gasp ahead .
I have my suspicion , but too early to speculate.
I think so too, oil already starting to bounce
DeleteWild swings maybe triangle - https://invst.ly/wrlfc
ReplyDeleteLooking much more bearish than this chart
DeleteI guess it is following the chart exactly but at a faster pace :)
DeleteThe pace is crazy, the market is nervous...
DeleteIt's an C of A?
ReplyDeleteI do not know what you mean.
Deletelooking more like it Krasi . The low yesterday may hold for a few days or a week , but a mid month low ( not a high) would follow .....maybe santa will then arrive after all.
ReplyDeleteAnother double zig-zag - https://invst.ly/wsaud
ReplyDeleteThank you so much that makes perfect sense. Entice bulls into thinking the rally will continue and stop out most bears before the big fall. If so, this morning was a bear trap.
Deletepossible a=c on NQ just below 15700 .
ReplyDeletesticking with plan A otherwise - that the ES low is in at the 4510 level & we rally for 7-10 days now
that will do for NQ a=c ....should bounce now
ReplyDeleteDAX looks like impulse and correction now - https://invst.ly/wsneh
ReplyDeletethis is what i see as well, wave 3 next week
Delete