Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - sell the rips, time to get out, potential major top.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - I would say some kind of double zig-zag.
Intermediate term - I see three zig-zags with roughly the same length in time W-x-Y-x-Z from the March.2020 low. NDX shows possible W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y https://invst.ly/wnvob. Reaction after testing the trend lines.... still waiting for more price action.
Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow. MACD and RSI look very "bullish".
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no change, at least short term top. Is it something more - we have to wait and see.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - turned lower.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - turning lower.
Bullish Percentage - hit overbought level 70 and turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower after touching overbought level 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - higher lows so far... double bottoms short term and intermediate term..
Advance-Decline Issues - lower highs and turned lower.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - day 10 so the indices should be close or at 20d high and next is lower for 20d low. Intermediate term - could it be 20w high?
Week 7 for the 20w cycle. Long term I am expecting 4 year cycle high. The 18m low more likely in late September the case with one extra 20w cycle so that time adjusts for the missing one from last year. The cycle sequence high-low looks perect so I will follow this model until proven wrong.
I think the high is in. This looks so familiar to 08-11' except on a smaller timeframe. Expecting a quick pullback heading into the end of the year.
ReplyDeletePeter Eliades thinks the same - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DqS9vrJEvAI
DeleteI am talking about this the last two weeks, so I would not disagree.
I'm glad to be in good company!
DeleteLooks like today will decide if we drop. Peter's targets have been met on spx
ReplyDeleteDon't think I can take seriously anyone calling the high of the century . Would be like calling the 1929 Dow high at 381 the high of the last century . Not sensible.
ReplyDeleteToday may be a reversal of sorts - maybe some rotation out of tech now into value .
There are a number of cycles suggesting a high this week , a low around 1 or 2 December - then another 5-6 week rally into early Jan .
No idea how sharp the pullback will be , but by early Jan the upper trendline will be around 4820/50 and that would be one target for a larger top .
Other two guys said mid-December is major turning point. What makes you so sure that your analysis is the right one?
DeleteNot sure , just probabilities . Rally phases have typically been at least 5-6 weeks and the issue is whether yesterday was a cycle low or , more likely , that low comes next week . That would then take us into early Jan . By then the upper trendline will be over 4800 , so I don't want to be surprised by such a print if it comes , nor risk too much too early .
DeleteThat is my bias , but yesterday's low bothers me until it gets broken - it would fit the nature of this market to have such a shallow correction and then give us a high into the CIT next week ....
I guess the other alternative is that the 4740 high is THE top , but that's very low probability given the seasonality.
I know what you mean another 10w high. It is possible... but I will not be surprise something like this - https://invst.ly/wp4fp
DeleteBull trap into the close. Looks like 1-2 is finished. Big 3 stars tomorrow and we'll have fresh bull meat for Thanksgiving. :)
ReplyDeleteI doubt it I am watching this:
Delete- cycles - https://invst.ly/wp4fp
- impulse or double zig-zag... what ever - https://invst.ly/wp4f8
ok thank you!
DeleteDAX looks like classical impulse - https://invst.ly/wp9fk
DeleteSo "buy the dip"?
DeleteWhat is your project for SP500 and NDX100? And for what time, in January 20W maybe? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteIt is not at all clear that we will see move higher so I do not have targets.
DeleteHappy Thanksgiving to you Krasi and everyone participating in the blog. Take a look at xrt, even monthly bear divergences there and may have topped already. 🙂🙏
ReplyDeletebreak of this weeks low clears a few things up . Preferred count remains , namely a low next week - anytime from Monday -Wednesday is possible . The US long bond still in a C wave up targeting 165/66 and that suggests more risk-off in the short term. Hopefully the two will coincide in tandem for a better tell.
ReplyDeleteThat answers that question!
ReplyDelete