Trading trigger - buy signal, rising into the next intermediate term top.
Analysis - sell the rips, time to get out, potential major top.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - for now counting this as b/Z and another zig-zag for c/Z.
Intermediate term - I see three zig-zags with roughly the same length in time W-x-Y-x-Z or possible W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y. I am expect one more high before significant decline - and this is playing out now.
Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow. MACD and RSI look very "bullish" - multiple divergences.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - in the middle of a move up.
McClellan Oscillator - reseting after oversold level.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - made higher high and retracing lower. I am expecting another higher low.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - I think the 5w high was last week and now we should see 20d high next week. Intermediate term we have 10w low and now higher into 10w high.
Week 10 for the 20w cycle. Long term I am expecting 4 year cycle high. The 18m low more likely in late September with one extra 20w cycle, alternate on time in June.
You had mentioned that fed is a for profit organization and will get out sooner than later. It looks like they are ready to tighten. If Powell wasn't bluffing, they may even double down. It will be interesting to see if he commits to tightening and equities still go up for a few more weeks.
ReplyDeleteThe insiders are selling like crazy... only a few shares are holding the market... FED will tighten - it does not look good.
DeleteA few weeks holidays is not a problem...
so far so good - Friday was the short term CIT and a 2-3 day pullback should ensue . With the Fed on Weds , that should mark another turn of sorts . Long on a dip into Weds , then we see how strong that rally is & whether we need a new high . Cycles say yes , I'm thinking not & we see a surprise before Xmas .....
ReplyDeletePotential reverse head and shoulders on Nasdaq
ReplyDeletePotential reverse head and shoulders on Nasdaq - market likely to bounce hard on Fed decision as Fed wont be scaring markets anytime soon
ReplyDeleteToo early but here is one surprising pattern for c/Z triangle - https://invst.ly/ww0up
ReplyDeleteso no santa rally? I thought we completed the C of B today.
ReplyDeleteOK we have the large move up today, shorts are basically fried but I'm sure some are hanging on. Is there any possibility with the cycles count that we have a triple combo to take out longs and shorts before the rally up you are talking about? Thank you https://invst.ly/wwghv
ReplyDeleteNot that i needed the fed to save me - it is important to know what market has priced in and psychology of the fed and when you are correct you make $$$'s both ways
ReplyDeleteSo the 2020 covid playbook repeats .....got the dip into the FED and now the final rally .
ReplyDeleteCycles ay this rally continues into January . The covid playbook says it'll last 2-5 days and then we collapse .
Plan is to exit all longs from yesterday today and certainly by tomorrow's close . The risk long just getting too great now - maybe the rally rolls on for a few weeks , but I doubt that and would rather get short again in anticipation of a big Xmas surprise .
Be interesting to see how the next few days play out. Double top area would be perfect , but may be wishful thinking.
Why couldn't be October 2018 a 4 year cycle high?
ReplyDeleteI think it is just b-wave top from a bigger pattern. Look at other indices.
DeleteKrasi, do you still think a few weeks higher?
ReplyDeleteAccording to the cycles I count 2 weeks...
DeleteI wonder if indices can hold up when NQ is bearish
Delete20d low?
ReplyDeleteI will suggest this decline into 5w low https://invst.ly/wx4n1
DeleteLooks like the mid month CIT today will be a low , so better odds on a further rally . The covid playbook allows for another 3-5 days sideways/up , so cutting shorts and going neutral for a while . See what next week brings as the volume dries up
ReplyDeleteMeant to add ...maybe a nice triangle for you to draw Krasi...
ReplyDeleteToday or Monday the low you think?
ReplyDelete