Trading trigger - sell signal, close below MA10 but I think there will be one more high.
Analysis - sell the rips, time to get out, potential major top.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the most simple pattern is we have b/c/Z and one final push higher. More complex patterns - diagonal or triangle for c/Z.
Intermediate term - I see three zig-zags with roughly the same length in time W-x-Y-x-Z or possible W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y.
Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow. MACD and RSI look very "bullish" - multiple divergences.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no change more of the same.
McClellan Oscillator - reseting after oversold level.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - made higher high and retracing lower. I am expecting another higher low.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - possible 20d low and high this week and now decline into 5w low after 5w high. For complete longer term cycle is one more 20d cycle high needed.
Week 11 for the 20w cycle. The 20w cycle high is at week 16 so nearing the top. Long term I am expecting 4 year cycle high.
A lot of overlapping it is obvious we have corrective pattern
ReplyDeleteTriangle option - https://invst.ly/wxu1b
Diagonal option - https://invst.ly/wxu2b
Thought triangle last week , now going with your diagonal ....if so we get a decent bounce into Weds/THurs this week.
ReplyDeleteDavidH talks about 3 18-month cycles in a 54 month cycle. With passing of just one of the 18 month cycle, he forecasts indices continuing their upward trend into the 2 18-month cycle before turning bearish for the third 18-month cycle. What is the primary reason for the difference in your analysis and his analysis?
ReplyDeleteCycle guys have no clue about pattern - I have listened the same in 2018, 2019 and now.
DeleteOther get it right https://forum.hurstcycles.com/t/thoughts-on-the-current-3-5-year-cycle/1270
Looks like your triangle target area was reached today, curious if this continues tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteGot the bounce into Weds/THurs !
ReplyDeleteThe triangle count is now everywhere . Seems too obvious , but guess we see whether get a dip post Christmas towards 4550 before a thrust to new highs .That's the plan until it's not .
Could be a wild ride in the US on monday/tuesday whilst the peans are on holiday!
Happy Christmas Krasi
Diagonal looks more likely the last two moves down-up are too fast for triangle.
DeleteHappy Christmas
Smaller triangle option although I do not like this fast legs - https://invst.ly/wyy7q
ReplyDeleteThe diagonal option - https://invst.ly/wyy9e
Possible flat if you look at the cash index... or NYSE
DeleteI like the triangle still because appl has a bearish rising wedge. Looks about to break much lower imo. I appreciate your input Krasi, have a wonderful holiday season.
ReplyDelete