Trading trigger - buy signal, nearing the next intermediate term high.
Analysis - sell the rips, time to get out, potential major top.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - possible flat obscured by higher high in the middle of the b-wave. This last leg is too fast for triangle or diagonal it is more likely c-wave.
Intermediate term - I see three zig-zags with roughly the same length in time W-x-Y-x-Z or possible W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y.
Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow. MACD and RSI look very "bullish" - multiple divergences.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no change more of the same.
McClellan Oscillator - positive above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal, low levels.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal, in oversold teritory.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - made higher high and retracing lower. I am expecting another higher low.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - not clear like the pattern, but at week 7 from the last high so close to 10w high.
Week 12 for the 20w cycle. Long term I am expecting 4 year cycle high. The 18m low more likely in late September with one extra 20w cycle, alternate on time in June.
Auguri di buone feste ... https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX500USD/qSExL27Z-Il-pattern-sembra-essere-completo/
ReplyDeleteThanks Krasi, looks very interesting for this week
ReplyDeleteTarget Broadening di continuazione S&P 500 https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX500USD/5puAbF1Y-Target-Broadening-di-continuazione-S-P-500/
ReplyDeleteSymmetrical broadening wedge http://www.forex-central.net/chart-patterns/img/symmetrical-broadening-pattern.jpg
The suggested c-wave counts now perfect as an impulse... have not seen one for very long time - https://invst.ly/wzt76
ReplyDeletewhat does this mean in regards to the larger count? another Wave 1 of 5? continued rally until spring?
Deletec-wave to complete flat b-wave then lower
Deletethank you, yes I think Santa rally is over early.
DeleteLooks like the Fed haven't started taper even if they said they would. What a joke. That's kind of a booster shot for the bulls which kind of explains the rally.
ReplyDeleteAt this point even Neely seems to be saying that he hasn't seen anything like this and the pattern is not fitting on any time frame. Next few weeks will tell if this is a new trend.
See how deep the correction into this Friday goes now , before deciding whether we need another New Year high .
ReplyDeleteDown to 4730/50 and likely only a shallow b wave . Bigger dip to low 4600's and bears might have the ball in 2022.
CIT this weekend
Hi Krasi, did you go short or waiting for drop below MA10?
ReplyDeleteClose below Ma10, no need to hurry there will be test of the high.
DeleteSorry, don't understand. SPX and DJ are already there. Are you referring to NQ which hasn't tested ATH.
DeleteThe current 20w cycle is already 13 weeks long so the decline will last only few weeks then we will see several weeks higher test of the high. The real decline should start in March.
DeleteSo 2-3 weeks of downside for 20w low and then final high for 4y high?
DeleteYes, this likely scenario.
DeleteShallow retrace this week so far - was expecting more .
ReplyDeleteHaving said that , I agree that we see a decline into mid Jan ( before or after a new high next week ) .I think the pattern is some type of complex b wave - giving us a new low below 4495 before a retest of the 4808 high .
Lovely for traders if so ....
HNY Krasi