HAPPY NEW YEAR, I wish you good luck and successful trading in 2022 !!!!!!!
All I can see is corrective pattern higher, just look at RSI daily/weekly - a-b-c/flat. Short term one more high is possible before a decline in January.
For the big picture there is two options this is c/Z running or something more crazy - still in b/Z like this. Why such complex pattern - the current 20w cycle is already 13 weeks long so the decline will last 3-5 weeks in January, then we will see several weeks higher test of the high in February/early March 10/20w? high.
TRADINGTrading trigger - buy signal, close to the next intermediate term high.
Analysis - sell the rips, time to get out, potential major top.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - I still see zig-zag higher which looks like some b-wave... lets wait and see what happens to the downside.
Intermediate term - I see three zig-zags with roughly the same length in time W-x-Y-x-Z or possible W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y. Obvious MACD/RSI divergence...
Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow. MACD and RSI look very "bullish" - multiple divergences.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - McClellan are now positive, but all the other indicators with divergences after the new high.
McClellan Oscillator - positive above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - divergence and below 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - divergence and below 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - higher low and divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - lower high and divergence.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - week 8 for the 10w high, last week I have shown the case with completing cycle/pattern. This is more bullish case with one more 20d high in a few days.
Week 13 for the 20w cycle. Long term I am expecting 4 year cycle high. The 18m low more likely in late September with one extra 20w cycle, alternate on time in June.
Thanks so much for your continued dedication and guidance Krasi
ReplyDeleteSpeculating with the European indices DAX/EU50 - https://invst.ly/x0c7a
ReplyDeleteThe same could be used for the US indices instead a triangle diagonal for the last c-wave
DeleteNDX speculation - https://ibb.co/ZgmxbX3
DeleteHi Krasi, you didn't post long term update this time. Hope you plan to do it. If not, do you mind posting intermediate/long term update for bonds, PMs and oil?
ReplyDeleteI will skip this time....
DeleteBonds/PMs are doing what they are supposed to do - higher into 18m high. Next is turn lower into 18m low.
Crude oil - pattern and cycles are not very clear, but correction is running and it will continue in the next months.
Crude oil most likely 4y high in 2-3 months - https://invst.ly/x1s7g
DeleteThank you!
DeleteFor those interested in EW http://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2022/01/year-end-review-of-s.html
ReplyDeleteMy scenario is the optimistic one so I am not so bearish after all :)))))
Another speculation DJ - https://invst.ly/x0sp9
ReplyDeleteNot a big believer in this expanding patterns, but lets see what follows next.
sorry I'm a little confused, certainly seems like a C wave is starting today. My questions is - do you think it's the smaller version (maybe a week or more) before more upside and all time highs again? Or could we see a much larger sell off into February and then a retrace but no more highs? I've mapped it here on spy. I'd appreciate your advice. I understand it could be something else entirely. https://invst.ly/x0ujh
ReplyDeleteThe usual length of 10w cycle is 40-45 days(first chart). This is day 21 so minimum 3-4 weeks decline.
DeletePlaying with different indices AEX has the most clean pattern and cycles from all indices - https://invst.ly/x1sld
ReplyDeletepossible to count 5 down now . CIT this weekend suggests a low today and a retrace next week , or at least for 2-3 days .
ReplyDeleteIf so , we should see a Jan low around mid month to complete C , then a fresh rally into month end .
SOXX index looks like it's about to start big 3 down. Bounces should be quite minor next week.
DeleteToday may be the 5 week low (best seen on NDX - 23 TDs from Dec 6), with one more 5 week cycle to go for the 20 week low in early February. Comments welcome. Thank you Krasi for all your relentless generous work.
ReplyDelete