Jan 1, 2022

Weekly preview


HAPPY NEW YEAR, I wish you good luck and successful trading in 2022 !!!!!!!




All I can see is corrective pattern higher, just look at RSI daily/weekly - a-b-c/flat. Short term one more high is possible before a decline in January.

For the big picture there is two options this is c/Z running or something more crazy - still in b/Z like this. Why such complex pattern - the current 20w cycle is already 13 weeks long so the decline will last 3-5 weeks in January, then we will see several weeks higher test of the high in February/early March 10/20w? high.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal, close to the next intermediate term high.
Analysis - sell the rips, time to get out, potential major top.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - I still see zig-zag higher which looks like some b-wave... lets wait and see what happens to the downside.


Intermediate term - I see three zig-zags with roughly the same length in time W-x-Y-x-Z or possible W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y.
Obvious MACD/RSI divergence...


Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow.
MACD and RSI look very "bullish" - multiple divergences.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - McClellan are now positive, but all the other indicators with divergences after the new high.
McClellan Oscillator - positive above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - divergence and below 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - divergence and below 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - higher low and divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - lower high and divergence.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - week 8 for the 10w high, last week I have shown the case with completing cycle/pattern. This is more bullish case with one more 20d high in a few days.


Week 13 for the 20w cycle. Long term I am expecting 4 year cycle high. The 18m low more likely in late September with one extra 20w cycle, alternate on time in June.

16 comments:

  1. Thanks so much for your continued dedication and guidance Krasi

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  2. Speculating with the European indices DAX/EU50 - https://invst.ly/x0c7a

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    1. The same could be used for the US indices instead a triangle diagonal for the last c-wave

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    2. NDX speculation - https://ibb.co/ZgmxbX3

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  3. Hi Krasi, you didn't post long term update this time. Hope you plan to do it. If not, do you mind posting intermediate/long term update for bonds, PMs and oil?

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    1. I will skip this time....
      Bonds/PMs are doing what they are supposed to do - higher into 18m high. Next is turn lower into 18m low.
      Crude oil - pattern and cycles are not very clear, but correction is running and it will continue in the next months.

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    2. Crude oil most likely 4y high in 2-3 months - https://invst.ly/x1s7g

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  4. For those interested in EW http://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2022/01/year-end-review-of-s.html
    My scenario is the optimistic one so I am not so bearish after all :)))))

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  5. Another speculation DJ - https://invst.ly/x0sp9
    Not a big believer in this expanding patterns, but lets see what follows next.

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  6. sorry I'm a little confused, certainly seems like a C wave is starting today. My questions is - do you think it's the smaller version (maybe a week or more) before more upside and all time highs again? Or could we see a much larger sell off into February and then a retrace but no more highs? I've mapped it here on spy. I'd appreciate your advice. I understand it could be something else entirely. https://invst.ly/x0ujh

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    1. The usual length of 10w cycle is 40-45 days(first chart). This is day 21 so minimum 3-4 weeks decline.

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  7. Playing with different indices AEX has the most clean pattern and cycles from all indices - https://invst.ly/x1sld

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  8. possible to count 5 down now . CIT this weekend suggests a low today and a retrace next week , or at least for 2-3 days .

    If so , we should see a Jan low around mid month to complete C , then a fresh rally into month end .


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    1. SOXX index looks like it's about to start big 3 down. Bounces should be quite minor next week.

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  9. Today may be the 5 week low (best seen on NDX - 23 TDs from Dec 6), with one more 5 week cycle to go for the 20 week low in early February. Comments welcome. Thank you Krasi for all your relentless generous work.

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