Trading trigger - sell signal, but there should be more to the upside. Overall weak cycle higher with 3/4 of the time reached and crossing below MA10.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, close to potential major top. Intermediate term higher for a few weeks. Trades depending on your time frame.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - no change - the bearish option is the top is in, the bullish opion c of Z is underway.
Intermediate term - I see three zig-zags with roughly the same length in time W-x-Y-x-Z or possible W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y=W. MACD broke below zero and now on the way up to test the zero line.... price is struggling with MA50.
Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - heading higher after intermideate term low.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - correction higher, one more leg lower expected.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range after oversold level.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - this looks like possible short term count. It will be confirmed if we see turn higher next week.
Week 2 for the 20w cycle.
Long term I am expecting 4 year cycle high. The 18m low either late September with one extra 20w cycle or alternate on time in June/July... waiting to see how the pattern will play out to confirm one of the two options.
Thanks Krasi. When you say "Short term - no change - the bearish option is the top is in, the bullish option c of Z is underway." What do you mean by the first part of the sentence. according to both bullish n bearish options the top seems in cz that C of Z only goes up to 4700? or you mean C of Z could go to make a new high than the January high?
ReplyDeleteOn dji I can see a new high
DeleteThe bearish option is this is b-wave of a bigger pattern lower.
DeleteThe bullish option is the decline has not begun - this is important for the cycle and pattern analysis not so much if c/Z will make a new high or not.
As of last week I think the top is in and a decline is running.
do you think the B may be over, or maybe one more zig zag? bounce here regardless I think.....https://invst.ly/xebws
ReplyDeleteI think it should be completed
DeleteThe high may be in , but the odds favour a rally into late Feb/early March . A divergent high seems probable , as the Dow continues to be the outlier and needing a new high to complete .
ReplyDeletetech to lag and print lower high before the waterfall
Yes, there is one more 20d cycle high before 20w high... but time is running out. Dj is still below MA10,MA50,MA200 so a new high is not a sure thing.
DeleteKrasi, what do you think now. the market is going nuts.
ReplyDeleteThe same... I do not see something crazy. Some corrective pattern that is why this swings in both directions.
Delete4350 area should be support, maybe the rally starts next week Tuesday. Monday is a holiday.
ReplyDeleteI am not sure maybe we will see one more week lower for 5 week low and then a rally
DeleteLooks bad, maybe gap down hard Tuesday.
ReplyDelete