Weekly preview

Two or three weeks are left before we see 20w cycle high. Time is passing and the price is not heading higher so time is confirming so far my suspicion from last week that the top is in.

Short term why I think there is more to the upside - first the cycle is not completed and second the decline takes more time than the move up which means there is no reversal and the indices are still in the same pattern which started in late January.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal, but there should be one more up to complete this intermediate term high. Time is running out, very weak cycle higher with 3/4 of the time reached and price is still below MA10.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, close to major top. Close to intermediate term top too.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - primary scenario in a B-wave from a bigger pattern which started in November.

Intermediate term - I see W-x-Y(yellow) with complex double zig-zag for Y=W, alternate we have Z-wave.
MACD broke below zero and now on the way up to test the zero line.... price is struggling with MA50.

Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - nothing new...
McClellan Oscillator - oscillating around zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal, reached oversold level.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - correction higher, one more leg lower expected.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - it looks like the indices are heading lower into 5w low after the 5w high. In this case next week should be lower then final push higher for 10w/20w high. Alternate the indices rally from next week into the expected high.

Week 3 for the 20w cycle. The 20w cycle high at week 15 so close to a high expected in the next 1-3 weeks.
Long term the indices are at 4 year cycle high. The 18m low either late September with one extra 20w cycle or alternate on time in June/July... waiting to see how the pattern will play out to confirm one of the two options.
An example how cycles and pattern look like if the 18m low was on time in July using the DAX works for NYSE and DJ , for SP500/NDX just counting the a/b-wave differently.
And 18m low in late September DAX again the only pattern I see expanding triangle as Z-wave... works for NYSE and DJ they should make new high, does not work for SP500/NDX.