Trading trigger - buy signal. Interesting how price and RSI hit the trend line.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, close to potential major top. Intermediate term higher for a few weeks. Trades depending on your time frame.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - now watching the move up.... the bearish option is the top is in, the bullish opion c of Z is underway. Overall more of the same zig-zag lower and now higher.
Intermediate term - I see three zig-zags with roughly the same length in time W-x-Y-x-Z or possible W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y=W.
Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned higher after intermideate term low.
McClellan Oscillator - reseting after oversold level.
McClellan Summation Index - still sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - still sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned higher in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned higher in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - turned lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - reseting after oversold level.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - we have somewhere 5w high and the last fourth 5w cycle for 20w high is running. Now we should see decline into 20d low. When we see it, we can better judge where the previous 20d low(20w low) was on 24 or 27 of January.
Week 1 for the 20w cycle. The average lenght is 16-18 weeks with 17 weeks I think we have 20w low and the next 20w cycle is running.
Long term I am expecting 4 year cycle high. The 18m low either late September with one extra 20w cycle or alternate on time in June/July... waiting to see how the pattern will play out to confirm one of the two options.
Krasi, thank you. Could you comment on the dollar? Do you see this as an end to an impulse or are we almost done with an abc correction with further upside in the year?
ReplyDeleteI do not see completed impulse - either a-b-c or 1-2-3 and now in 4 or B wave.
DeleteYeah I thought so as well, thanks for taking a look at it.
DeleteGot the rally & fade on Friday ...should see 4425ish next which is pretty much MOB for the bulls . Odds at the moment are for a rally from there .
ReplyDeleteThank you Krasi, very helpful..
ReplyDeleteHi Krasi, what is primary difference between a 20 week cycle during uptrend vs. a 20 week cycle in downtrend? Will there be longer down cycles within the 20w cycles in downtrend vs uptrend?
ReplyDeleteThere is no difference if the 20w is in down or up trend - time is time.
DeleteThe only difference is fear is stronger compared to greed which means if you see sudden plunge very likely the cycle will be shorter - the fuel will be burned quickly.
Exaggerated example for that is March 2020.
Thank you, explains why the deeper lows are happening sooner in the cycles.
DeleteThe fear is also exaggerated due to the changing nature of markets influenced by algos, speed of spread of information on social media, etc
Gold looks like a triangle and may be finished with it recently. If you don't mind, what's your take on that? Thank you
ReplyDeleteYes, it looks like triangle it could be still in d-wave.
DeleteD? I thought E. So you're thinking it breaks lower?
DeleteYes it will break lower
Deletebulls found support at 4465 and avoided a trip to last support at 4425. Could see a bit of chop now and overnight resistance of 4550 will take a bit of effort to overcome . If/when we clear that area , we should see a decent rally . As before , Dow should lead and target ( until it fails) is the double top there with lower highs elsewhere .
ReplyDeleteCan recent low be 18 month low?
ReplyDeleteSix 20w cycles for a 18m cycle - not very likely. I am trying to justify one more but two is too much.
DeleteEuropean indices speculation - https://invst.ly/xctys
ReplyDeleteIf it plays out it will really complex Z-wave top.
The weekly chart - https://invst.ly/xcu0o
Deleteshould be a fun day today , with es closing just below 4586 yesterday . Break that and the bulls should be set for more and a dt on the Dow is the likely outcome . Failure here & the bears may take back control .
ReplyDeleteCPI pre -market , so a gap looks likely and then we see if it will fill...
looks like one more high into tomorrow to confuse everyone
ReplyDeleteThis drop may be a wave 4 from March 2020 ?
ReplyDeleteI do not see an impulse
Delete"Corrective wave 4 is shallow 0,382 or 0,5 of wave 3 and it should not penetrate into the price territory of wave 1(exception diagonals)"
ReplyDeleteLooking NDX I would say the top is in - https://invst.ly/xdodu
ReplyDeleteWe had 20w low and we should see sharp rally higher instead weakness - look at the weekly candles one final sell off and three weeks nothing.
It means this is correction and expect continuation into 40w low.
40 w low in March then?
DeleteNo this is weekly chart
Delete