Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - the indices turned lower to complete the 4y cycle low. Intermediate term not clear, I think we will see one more low.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - we have double zig-zag higher. It could be wave-a of bigger move higher or correction before continuing lower.
Intermediate term - a-b-c lower so far and 20w low expected. Logical targets - MA200 or slightly lower the trend lines.I have the feeling we will see one more low.
Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024.Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - either we have reversal or preparing for divergence.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero.
McClellan Summation Index - neutral.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - neutral.
Bullish Percentage - turned higher.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - up and down.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 20d high and next week we should see 20d low. Possible 10w/20w/40w cycles are shown.
Week 13 for the 20w cycle. Moved the 40w low to the right in this case we have one more 5w cycle for 20w low.
thanks Krasi, another low with daily bull divergence on the rsi would likely mean some kind of rally into end of year.
ReplyDeletethat would also looks like a leading diagonal 5 wave structure....
Deletethank you krasi. i like the wave B scenario bottoming this tuesday and a final wave C rally for a about week before we head south. i am expecting the final low of this year early december, which means this coming tuesday low would be a 10 week unorthodox low.
ReplyDeleteJP
Do you see ATH, at list for NDX, or even SPY
ReplyDeleteNo
DeleteWhere do you see the dollar?
ReplyDeleteHigher
DeleteHi Krasi, what is your opinion of the middle east conflict? :-) Do you think it will escalate?
ReplyDeleteOf course it will escalate, this is the purpose from the beginning - find an excuse for extreme violence.
DeleteOr you can be so naive to believe it was a surprise and they were caught unprepared.
i can't agree more!!
DeleteJP
Why find a purpose for extreme violence (other than for selling more defenses equipment)?
DeleteTo create greater conflict and destruction, more economical damages and chaos, to have an excuse when everything fall apart... and many other reasons and goals. It is too long to explain.
DeleteAlso why do you think bonds will keep losing value and interest rate will be higher for decades
ReplyDelete50 years bond bull market has reversed. The era of easy money is over.
DeleteThank you very much for ferreting out the Grand Super Cycle chart (DJIA) found in your last post of last week, Krasi. Doesn't a projection/prognosis of the markets currently ending a V of III wave portend to a "grand" buttkicking to come, even if just a (years long) correction? Just curious, big-picture wise. Thanks again for your efforts.
ReplyDeleteYes, to reach the long term average values we should see 70% decline.
DeleteWhen?
DeleteFrom the second half of 2025.
DeleteHello, Krasi. How do you see the gold?
ReplyDeleteSimilar with the indices - https://invst.ly/11rorc
DeleteHigher for b/B 1-2 months lower for c/B to complete the correction from the last high and higher into 4y cycle high.
i think today's open lows are very important. if we break them next couple of days we could have a 200+ sp points decline into end of month. we'll see.
ReplyDeleteJP
Keep dreaming
Deletei don't think i am dreaming at al. the condition is "if we break today's lows in the next couple of days" otherwise the forecast is negated. but if we do watch out!
ReplyDeleteJP
4060 is the head and shoulders target on spx futures. By mid November I would think
Deletei think we have two important lows coming. one is end of october/early november and the other late november/early december which should be a lower low followed by a year end rally. the december low may break the 4000 level potentially. of course this goes completely against everyone his mother and grandmother following the sp seasonal chart which is forecasting an explosion rally from now into end of year in a wave 5 type of impulse. we will see but i very much doubt the seasonal chart will be right.
DeleteJP
Is it possible last friday 20d low and yesterday 5w high?
ReplyDeleteDo you think pattern is complete for US10Y?
ReplyDeleteShort-term (daily) $TNX making bearish divergence top vs. parameters/indicators. Weekly and monthly charts for same look like yields still "have legs" for a while more.
DeleteTyx gonna blow off top, should be exciting over 5.3
Delete20w more soon?
ReplyDelete20w low soon?
DeleteDouble zig-zag as usual or impulse (breaking the rule for 1/4 overlapping ) - https://invst.ly/11vb0w
ReplyDeleteKrasi, I know you employ mostly EW and cycles in your market prognostications, but do you every use chart patterns as well? The reason I ask is that I have been sifting through the long-term charts of various instruments, and stumbled upon the monthly chart for gold (GLD), in which there appears to be a very large continuation H&S pattern developing, with neckline approx. 193.00. With the "head" being 151.00, and IF this is said pattern, that projects to a run up to a minimum of 235.00 or so for GLD (GDX, being an etf/index, isn't forming such a nice pattern). Any thoughts, especially if this "run up" would potentially align with EW and/or cycles for same as well? Thanks much! Cheers.
ReplyDelete"... EVER use ..."
DeleteI do not buy this inverse H&S patterns, most of the time it is a fantasy what you want to see.
Deletewe should have an important low between this friday and next tuesday probably below 4100, followed by a big bounce into mid-november. i think the early december low will break the current low we are putting in. we'll see.
ReplyDeleteJP
Lots of people saying next week is the low, put call not even close to being panicked yet
Deletefor sure not expecting the Low next week as i think the big Low is months if not years from now until the last drop of blood from the last bull alive is drained out. all i am saying we may have a short term 5week low early next week followed by a bounce before the massacre continues into december. if we break early next week's low within a couple of days bounce not more then we should have an outright crash into november breaking 4000 and potentiaöly 3500 within 1-2 weeks.
DeleteJP
Krasi, bottom yet?
ReplyDeleteKrasi, muchas gracias por tu trabajo. ¿rebote tipo "onda C" después de los 4000?
ReplyDelete