Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - the indices turned lower to complete the 4y cycle low. Intermediate term - nearing a low, in a few weeks.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - w-y-z alternate one more up and down for double zig-zag.
Intermediate term - lower low and the support area hit. There is a potential for a bottom, but no signs for reversal. There is one more target lower MA200 and the trend line on the weekly chart - see below.
Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024. Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - oversold and some divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - multiple divergences.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal, oversold.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - neutral.
Bullish Percentage - oversold .
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - oversold, divergence.
Advance-Decline Issue - slightly oversold levels.
Fear Indicator VIX - grinding higher.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - no clear 10w low, it looks like we have three longer 5w cycles. Maybe 20d low and higher next week....
Week 16 for the 20w cycle. The indices should be near to a 20w cycle low.
Hello Krasi, thanks for your precious works. What do you think about Israel War and the impact on the stocks market very near also at the decision of Powell on wedsneday?
ReplyDeletePowel is not important and I do not think this war will change the cycles or the pattern.
DeleteIt is part of a bigger game - the system which is falling apart. I talked about that in 2018 now it is getting obvious.
Krasi, would love to hear your thoughts about the bigger game. You talk about it often but it will be an interesting read to understand why you think lot of the stuff is intentional and more importantly why it is being done.
ReplyDeleteMay be you can post it over the weekend and take it down after a few days if you don't want it floating around here.
The so called democracy is just a theater for the masses, ulusion that you have a choice - the ruling elite does not need it anymore.
DeleteThe so called capitalism is dead for a long time, the financial system is bankrupt - the ruling elite needs a reset, but to blame it on something else.
They want to replace it with totalitarian regime and they need - total control(digital ID and currency etc.), crisis after crisis to destroy what is left, creating chaos,desperation,fear.
At the end they will sell you shit for cake and you will beg for it - guess how it will gone a happen.
I have wrote about this in 2018, the process has been started in 2020 and I guess it will accelerate around the elections at the end of next year.
Do you think US10y has topped? (Million dollar question :-))
ReplyDeleteShort term - no. Longer term it should be close to a top, I think it should calm down and correct for a few years then higher again.
Delete4k next week ☺️
ReplyDeleteCome on, you can't be a bear forever.
Delete3900 by December
DeleteIf we see the top, the market is going higher and the dollar is getting down?
ReplyDeleteI see a bull flag in the spy and NDX
ReplyDeleteYou can call it cup and handle
ReplyDeletethis bounce "could" last into mid-november into an ABC type of a retracement with wave A done or close to being done at the close of wednesday after genius spoke. the next leg down into december will be a massacre. but first bulls need to be sucked in as we can see they already showed up after a 3 day bounce!
ReplyDeleteJP
still expecting a big decline into late november/early december before year end rally resumes. the current bounce should top sometime this coming week or latest mid november but not much higher than friday's close. due to the strength of this expected bounce the upcoming decline into late november may only be a (higher) retest of late october low. the real fun to the downside should start after new year's.
ReplyDeleteJP