Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - the indices turned lower to complete the 4y cycle low. Intermediate term low expected soon.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the move looks like impulse c-wave or maybe third wave. It could be that b/iv-wave is running and one more low will follow... so waiting and watching.
Intermediate term - a-b-c lower and 20w low expected. Logical targets - MA200 or slightly lower the trend lines.
Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024.Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - oversold levels, no divergences so far or signs of a bottom.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero, divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - almost touched oversold level.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - oversolld level.
Advance-Decline Issues - oversolld level and reversal.
Fear Indicator VIX - weak drifting higher.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - the price above the MA and the indicator breaking the trend line means high of at least 5w magnitude. Speculation on my side - three longer 5w cycles for 20w high sometimes in November. Short term higher into 20d high.
Week 19 for the 20w cycle. Waiting for a low, maybe we saw it waiting for confirmation.
It is a major war coming in the Middle East so oil, bonds and gold going up
ReplyDeleteEvery Tom Dick and Harry is long TLT.. Is this a major bottom for TLT?
ReplyDeleteyou answered your own question - if everyone is long it aint no major bottom!!!
DeleteNo, we have major top and for decades the direction is lower with corrections on the way lower.
DeleteSorry, when you say decades, are you referring to past or the future decades to come
DeleteThe future of course, the past decades were higher for bonds.
DeleteWhy do you think bonds will be lower for several decades?
Deletethank you krasi. is it possible that the 4/4.5 yr cycle low is in 2026 instead of 2024?
ReplyDeleteJP
No
DeletePerhaps Fridays NFP low was an important low in the short to intermediate term.
ReplyDeleteIt is possible, double zig-zag completed - https://invst.ly/11ow4-
DeleteWe will know more when we see the end of the week.
Does the current px action invalidate your short term chart? Thx
ReplyDeleteNo
DeleteAin't no 4th wave
ReplyDeleteNo real signs of weakness so far, but CPI might cause some wild swings today.
ReplyDeleteWould you mind sharing a graph on DAX? Thx
https://invst.ly/11q55-
DeleteThank you! Would it make sense with the low around Opex next week, Oct 20?
DeleteKrasi, since it has been quite a while since the last Long-Term Update, could you please provide a very long-term chart that depicts the two potential scenarios you refer to above (especially with EW wave labels) - ie. "Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started." This chart would surely help me with the Big/Biggest Picture going forward. Thanks much.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/11q55d
DeleteThank you very much, Krasi. What I was trying to do was visualize/track the VERY long wave structure to supplement the "B" label (c/Y on new chart) on your long-term chart above. So the corresponding "A" wave to said B wave would have been 2009 low? And if so, then the 2007/2008 "high" would have been V/5 end of a impulse wave that began in the 1990s /2000s? I have been trying to find someone's EW view back that far. I appreciate your efforts.
Delete"... end of AN impulsive wave ..." for correct English above. So I guess I am looking for Super / Grand Super Cycle wave count beyond 2009 or so.
Deletethis is one try - http://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2023/10/for-life-of-me.html
Delete