Long term this is important high it could be even the top from 2009... if you look at stronger index like NDX it looks like zig-zag from 2020, weaker index like NYSE looks like b-wave of a flat and very weak index like RUT just a b-wave bearish flag. TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - at the top. Important turn lower next week.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - depending where the low is you can count impulse c for a-b-c or double zig-zag y for w-x-y. I would bet on zig-zags....
Intermediate term - two zig-zags down and up... waiting for B-wave to be completed and C-wave for a flat should follow.Alternate this is expanding ending diagonal from the 2022 low for a-b-c from the 2020 low and the top from 2009.
Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower, alternate this is the top from 2009.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - trying to turn higher, but look very weak with divergencies.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero with divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - turned up, divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - turned up.
Bullish Percentage - turning up, below 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turning up, below 75.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned up with double divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - multiple higher lows.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 20d cycle low, now higher into 20d cycle high. The 40w cycle high divides better in three, there is no clear 20w high.
Week 16 for 40w cycle. I expect 40w cycle low around June consisting of three extended 10w cycles.
Week 29, at a high of at least 40w magnitude... and very likely 18m high too.
"top 5 stocks = 75% of S&P500 YTD gain, top 3 tech stocks = 90% of tech sector YTD gain, US equity “breadth” currently worst since Mar’09"
ReplyDeleteThis is a strong bull market - how long it will take before collapsing like a cheep tent?
Per John Templeton: “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.” So Irving, cue up the band (again):
Delete"Blue skies smilin’ at me
Nothin’ but blue skies do I see
Bluebirds singin’ a song
Nothin’ but bluebirds all day long ..."
Hi Krasi, what's your take on EURPLN please?
ReplyDeleteOne more low then move higher... this is all the useful information I see.
DeleteKrasi, can comment whats going on now in SPX? hanging on dear life?
DeleteAre you sleeping? The only thing that matters is NVDA earnings :)
DeleteKrasi, does this premarket SPX surge of 60+ points satisfy your final count of a peak?
DeleteThere is some minimum reached y flat or 5=0.618x1, but I can not say if it will extend to 5=1 or not - https://invst.ly/13lozn
DeleteUSD/JPY close to major high - https://invst.ly/13j9hj
ReplyDeleteAre you referring to the 1990 high?
DeleteI am referring to another major 9 year cycle high which leads to risk off trade
DeleteUUP:FXY exhibiting bearish divergences across the (timeframe) board - reversal looks imminent.
Deletefrance, germany and japan have all made new highs, i guess markets arent heading down as TA'S keep calling
ReplyDeleteWrong....
Deletewhen the 20% sell off comes ad it always does it may be irrelevant as it may just take markets back to late last year - hardly a big deal
ReplyDeleteYour assumption is nothing changed and it will not change - business as usual.
DeleteWell this is very wrong assumption. Read the end of the post.
https://practicaltechnicalanalysis.blogspot.com/2024/02/weekly-preview.html
Hi Krasi! Do you currently see a different count on the short term chart or would you lable it roughly the same as per the weekend comment? Thanks
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/13lozn
Delete5w low this week?
DeleteMore likely 13.02
Deleteare we there yet? getting sleepy waiting for so long.
ReplyDeleteWe have the minimum, if it takes another day or two I can not say.
Deleteamazing, still going parabolic. this is getting ridiculous! who is buying at this level?
DeleteRetail / "weak hand" investors, FOMO-ers, perma-bulls, fundamental analysis-based investors, and on and on ...
DeleteFor the guy explaining how European indices made a new high and TA is failing no move lower is expected.
ReplyDeleteThis is MAJOR TOP move lasting 15 years is completing in front of your eyes.
hourly - https://invst.ly/13mbg1
daily - https://invst.ly/13mb7v
weekly - https://invst.ly/13mb7z
monthly - https://invst.ly/13mb81
And bonus what will follow - C-wave to complete the flat pattern and 15 years of gains will be wiped out https://invst.ly/13mbjx
DeleteHi! cant access to this links, is there any restriction? thanks!
DeleteNo, try another browser at my PC it does not work with Firefox.
Deleteworks! thanks
DeleteI am not contesting what you are saying but why do you think this is the top and not after another 10-15% increase from here? In other words, why the Y wave cannot keep going up for some more time.
ReplyDeleteBecause cycles says the indices are a top and they should decline for a few months and with awful market breadth and multiple divergences continuation for a few more weeks and another 10-15% is a fantasy.
DeleteLooks like c wave up not down.
ReplyDeleteYes c/y/B... but you can keep believing in flying unicorns.
DeleteIf NQ makes another higher high in tandem with ES and DOW it looks like it could take another 1-2 weeks
DeleteYou keep disparaging anyone with bullish comments for months. But it keeps rising. I mean it has been rising a lot. I don’t know how you can be so sure.
DeleteIt is pretty obvious just look at any chart. Today posted Europe a few weeks ago MSFT 30 years chart and bonds and explained why. Those calling for a new bull market are wrong.
DeleteThis second leg surprised me, but does not change anything in fact it is worse now.
i dunno looks ready here $spx https://www.tradingview.com/x/Vxl0v0QJ/
ReplyDeleteIf you look at whenever the market dive down like it did couple years ago and went up aggressively, it looks like it always pushes higher by a lot. Even if it retest the low of last year. Just saying. Nothing says the bull market is in jeopardy.
ReplyDeletethe Rut hasn't been saying anything about a bull market - at all
DeleteYou just can not imagine that after 15 years it is over... well it is, plenty of signs the bull market is in jeopardy.
DeleteJamie knows something is off. Feb 22 (Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N), opens new tab CEO Jamie Dimon has sold about $150 million of his shares in the bank, a SEC filing showed on Thursday, marking the first time the head of the largest U.S. lender has sold shares since taking charge in 2005.
ReplyDelete