Weekly preview

Lower into FOMC and higher as expected and now everything fits together. We have the pattern following the analysis and completed, cycles completing nicely 10w high after 10w low and 8x5w cycle highs, market breadth weak and divergences, indicators with divergences, NYSE managed to reach 90% retracement for a flat pattern too.
We can see one more pop up on Monday but, this is important top, it can get realy ugly... many see possible ED, election year, years ending with 4 and January higher are always higher:) it is impossible to decline. Looking at the last chart I am not an optimist and that is why I have the top in 2021/2022.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - at the top. Important turn lower next week.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - we saw the decline probably wave iv. The first target was reached it still possible to see one more high and touch the second target - starting from the lowest point this could be (iv) wave after extended (iii) wave

Intermediate term - two zig-zags down and up with the same size... waiting for B-wave to be completed and C-wave for a flat should follow.
Alternate wave 4 of ED expected.

Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024.
Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed. Alternate if we are lucky this is some topping pattern triangle or ED and there is one more high in 2025.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - does not react to this rally at all... some pointing lower and divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - moving lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - moving lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower with divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - series of higher lows.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 20d low as expected now at 20d high. It will complete 8x5w cycles for 40w cycle high.

Week 14 for 40w cycle. I expect 40w cycle low around June consisting of three extended 10w cycles.
Week 27, at a high of at least 40w magnitude... and very likely 18m high too.

Bonus chart(MSFT) for those still living in some fantasy world. We are at MAJOR inflection point. What started in the 80's is completing and reversing. Bonds/yields reversed after almost 40 years, the indices most likely in 2021/2022 too with a double top now caused by the tech sector completing their patterns. It is over, it is new environment, it is the inflection point of a life time. You can take profits or watch how everything evaporates.
It is not just MSFT but it is the perfect example - nothing much to explain the chart is clear. The trend from the last 30-40 years is over(it is much longer but the "investing life" is 30-40 years anyway).