Weekly preview

This week the price is higher, but it feels like distribution. For example NDX has three days gapping up and selling starts closing below the open and the week ended with shooting star candle. Gap lower next week and red weekly candle will be bearish pattern. In contrast NYSE has strong weekly candle and managed to move above the last minor high.
So mixed signals, but I would say one more 20d cycle high. We have 20d high and now decline into 20d low... probably a low around FOMC and final high after that.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - final wave completing the correction and turn lower to complete the 4y cycle low. At intermediate term high now topping process.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - we have two legs with 1,618 ratio. So either Z zig-zag is completed or impulse is running and currently in iv/5.

Intermediate term - two zig-zags down and up with the same size... waiting for B-wave to be completed and C-wave for a flat should follow.
Alternate wave 4 of ED expected.

Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024.
Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed. Alternate if we are lucky this is some topping pattern triangle or ED and there is one more high in 2025.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - does not react to this rally at all... completely different behaviour compared to the firts leg.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - around overbought level with divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - around overbought level with divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range and divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - up and down.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 20d high and now pullback into 20d low. Probably one more 20d cycle for 8x5w cycles and 40w high.

Week 13 for 40w cycle. I expect 40w cycle low around June consisting of three extended 10w cycles.
Week 26, one more 20d cycle high and top of at least 40w magnitude... and very likely 18m high too.