Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - final wave completing the correction and turn lower to complete the 4y cycle low. At intermediate term high now topping process.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - wave lower and now we should see turn higher, but it is not confirmed at the moment.
Intermediate term - two zig-zags down and up with the same size... next should be decline probably C-wave for a flat.
Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024.Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low.If we are lucky this is some topping pattern triangle or ED and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - turning lower.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - turning lower.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - short term higher lows.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - at 20d low next is higher for 20d high.... probably 10w low too.
Week 10 for the 20w cycle. This should be 20w cycle high and turn lower into 20w low.
Long term the previous 4y cycle high is repeating - 3x40w cycles/two years for mid-cycle high(2018-2019 / 2022-2023) and down into 4y low.
From the October.2022 low the cycles do not follow the theoretical model.
The highs - we have one 40w high and one 18m high consisting of 3x20w extended cycles instead of 2x40w, but the same average length 15-16 months.
The lows - we have 20w and 40w cycle, I guess one more 20w cycle(the current one) to complete 18m/4y cycle.
Krasi, look at 1970-1980, 10 years but no real crush, it can be the same? They go up and down 5 times
ReplyDeleteKeep dreaming...
Deletethe bounce so far is weak. if we don't pick up steam by the end of the session we should head south and break friday's lows by wednesday's close / thursday's open
ReplyDeleteJP
the dow is very weak which is already a warning sign
DeleteJP
What do you think about NVDA?
ReplyDeleteAnother bubble to pop...
DeleteA last high with divergences will look better
ReplyDeleteIt is possible.
DeleteKrasi, I am guessing you will go short soon or are already short. In your opinion, shorting which index has higher ROI (SPX, ndx, rut, etc) and why? May be you just keep things simple but curious about your thoughts.
ReplyDeleteWaiting patiently for the high after the 10w low and it is coming ...
DeleteTrading just SPX not constantly trying to find the best trade.
NDX has the biggest decline in 2022 so probably NDX again.
karsi, whats the target of this rally?
ReplyDeleteI do not know...
DeleteDon't you think NVDA to 600, after movement from 400 to 500 it goes up from 500
ReplyDeleteIt's a short squeeze for sure...
ReplyDeletewell the rally picked up big time into the close following the strong short term positive divergences we had last week. i think we should top within a week or so. after a pull back into mid week.
ReplyDeleteJP
The latest Monday-Tuesday next week - https://invst.ly/12xym5
DeletePreviously (when you used StockCharts?), the period (60 min., 120 min., 2 bars/day, daily, etc.) were annotated on each of your charts. I do not see that info. in the Investing.com charts above. Is there any way to add those annotations, or define them in your text for each? I wanted to replicate your charts on my end, with additional/different indicators and/or oscillators for comparison/contrast to your charts. Thanks much.
DeleteSorry, above request for Krasi.
DeleteThe second row, the last letter D for daily chart
Deletelet's see where the expected low around wednesday takes us. with this volatility we never know. it may take back all the gains..
DeleteJP
i think we bottom around opex day friday jan 19. let's see..
DeleteJP
JP do you have the estimate range on SPX for the round?
Deletethe "expected" bottom around opex day should be below 4600spx. there is a short term low this wednesday close / thursday open (cpi day) followed by a 1-3 day cpi scam pump before we head down into opex. i don't know if this mid-week's short term low is only a retracement of the squeeze we just had or it will break friday's low. it all depends i guess on the cpi gap open on thursday. opex low is an important one tradable on the long side. let's see if this works..
DeleteJP
JP
thanks JP for the reply. are you seeing options as the mastermind behind these movement lately. i read about sold puts holding up the market. is that true? there is simply no reasons for anyone to FOMO into the market with this high PE. I wonder why the market is holding up so well.
Deletei wouldn't touch options with a ten-foot pole. you can hit a home run or two but in the end you will wipe out your account. futures is the way to go as long as you strictly use risk management in terms of position sizing to your account and rigorous albeit not too tight of a stop for every position you take.
DeleteJP
in terms of sizing ideally you allocate 3-4x the margin requirement per contract
DeleteJP
What about Apple today? Dragonfly doji?
ReplyDeleteThere is no dragonfly doji..... and candles mean something for the next few days anyway.
DeleteThe dollar is very weak, that's why the market is strong, and we have lower high
ReplyDeleteMonth chart
ReplyDeleteI am not holding options. I am asking if the market is now controlled by options play with sold puts holding up the market. READ HERE: https://twitter.com/Dr_Gingerballs/status/1744050239311696235
ReplyDeletesorry i misunderstood you. the link you sent doesn't say much maybe i couldn't open it. anyway it's irrelevant there are several ways "they" can hold the market up temporarily but not in the long run. we are playing against criminals who want to steal our money. i just focus on the weekly tape that's it. i fully agree with krasi that we are at an important inflection point. can we see new highs after this decline? possible but i wouldn't bet on it.
DeleteJP
I see everyone bullish on mag7 and buying the dip for the long term. I still cannot pull the trigger to long at this kind of pe level despite what being said about seasonality and AI is the future. also there is another saying that the USD is going hyperinflation like in Argentina where the stock market super rally. it is not logical at all, if USD goes hyper, interest rate will rocket to 20%, how is that good for the rest of the world?
Deletethe tape is too strong. i think last friday was a 5 week low not 11/12 day low. which means the 20 week low would only be early february and we should have another good week to go on the upside. we may have a gap down tomorrow but it will not hold they will reverse it.
ReplyDeleteJP
the last 20 week low would have been early october not end of october. krasi does this make sense? thank you
DeleteLooks right so far and again shorts are piling in before another cpi
Deletehi roberto, how and where can I see that shorts are piling in?
DeleteOn trading view look at pcc
DeleteKarsi, any change in view for the latest SPX rally? still 4815 reversal?
ReplyDeleteThat was a different pattern, but I still think pop above 4800 is likely.
Deletehotter CPI, karsi, can this be the trigger to the selloff?
ReplyDeleteNo, it is still topping... I expect one more move higher.
Deletei think they buy the gap down open
ReplyDeleteJP
they bought the pre-open gap down and they sold the post open gap up i love it!:))
DeleteJP
10d low today
ReplyDeletelow could be tomorrow at the open if not already in
DeleteJP
may be a triangle from 20 december, now vawe e
ReplyDeleteIt must be expanding triangle very rare
Deleteyes, it looks like a megaphone formation since dec 20. we should retest the highs early next week to complete wave E. extremely bearish formation.
DeleteJP
It is a neutral triangle, canalize by a-e, wave c remains outside of the channel
Deletethat is some fantasy pattern
Deletestrong short term negative divergences same as the positive divergences we had last friday but reversed. i think we still go and test the 4835-40 spx level to complete wave e of the megaphone next week but sometimes wave e falls short. lets see
ReplyDeleteJP
JP. is today trading pattern signalling THE day?
Deleteit looks like wave e of the megaphone may have truncated (it happens). stop is clearly at today's highs which if broken we may have another 30-40 point upside. otherwise the top is in and we should expect a decline below 4600 within a couple of weeks.
DeleteJP
so far the decline looks corrective which favors another squeeze into next week. today's close will clarify it.
DeleteJP
JP
typical friday afternoon fk u action. bounce attempt not convincing at all. i think the TOP is in. it should be confirmed on tuesday
DeleteJP
JP, why sound post I read shows sp500 4830 now while the actual CNBC reading is 4778?
Deletemaybe since july instead of 20w high it is 40w high with 3 cycles of 12 weeks, so we will rise until march
ReplyDeleteThis is 18m high now there is no March
Deletewhats the earliest date that this stupid market will crash? next week or feb now?
DeleteBanks and BTC topped together, ironic
ReplyDeleteMiddle of feb
ReplyDeleteVery large VIX options (call) purchase today ...
ReplyDeleteya vix 17 rite?
Delete"A trader bought about 250,000 call contracts on the VIX Index with a strike price of 17 that expire on Feb. 14. The trader spent about US$16.7 million in premium, with each contract costing between roughly $0.63 and $0.67. The VIX hasn’t traded above the 17 level since early November."
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