Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - final wave completing the correction and turn lower to complete the 4y cycle low. At intermediate term high now topping process.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - some count this as an impulse... this waves 2 and 3 are too ugly for me and 4 breaking the channel... I would rather count tripple zig-zag. If you looking for impulse NYSE looks more like impulse. I will not be surprised to see decline and the next trend line broken... may be we have not seen the 10w low.
Intermediate term - two zig-zags down and up with the same size... next should be decline probably C-wave for a flat.
Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024.Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low.If we are lucky this is some topping pattern triangle or ED and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - ready for divergence when we see the price making higher high.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - pointing lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - pointing lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - moving lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - higher lows.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 20d high now lower for a few days into 20d low. It looks like 5x5w cycle highs to me for 3x25 week long cycles.
Week 11 for the 20w cycle. The last low should be of 40w magnitude and this high is of 18m magnitude consisting of 3x20w extended cycles instead of 2x40w.
Long term the previous 4y cycle high is repeating - two years for mid-cycle high(2018-2019 / 2022-2023) and down into 4y low.
Foundation for the Study of Cycles - interesting videos different guys with analysis
ReplyDeleteHow the 18.6-year Cycle Can Transform Your Investing - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQaRlA9K7Eo
FSC Market Forecast 2024: Larry Williams and Lars von Thienen (Day 1) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qIWgSLOlIk
FSC Market Forecast 2024: Jake Bernstein and Robert Prechter (Day 2) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DccRjBb3_2w
FSC Market Forecast 2024: Bill Sarubbi and Stan Harley (Day 3) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqeWKBZsnpA
Brief summary major high in 2025 and subsequent major low in 2029 - I fully agree.
DeleteMost are bullish about 2024 - normal when you expect the high in 2025.
Correction expected into June-July - I would say it will be bigger than their expectations.
They are not using Hurst cycles so not mentioning 18m or 4y cycle. One of the guys is counting 7 year cycle(this is the 9y Hurst cycle running shorter) 2002->2009->2016->2022->2029.
Another count from Hurst cycle guy (not from this videos) sticking to the theory 2002->2011->2020->2029 and we have the same year.
Why 2011? - because we have important year major shift commodities to stocks in 2011. There is periods when you should invest in commodities and periods to invest in stocks.
Look at long term gold chart and you will see what I mean... by the way the next shift is coming in a few years.
- 1970-1980 gold soaring stocks correcting
- 1980-2000 stocks soaring gold correcting
- 2000-2010 gold soaring stocks correcting
- 2010-202X stocks soaring gold correcting(sideways but it is a correction look at silver)
- 2030-2040 gold soaring stocks... probably a dud
I have shown already alternate pattern with ED and explained why, but with the information above this one looks much better - https://invst.ly/12-il1
DeleteDouble zig-zag w-x-y, for y wave a is definitely the strong one now we need weak wave c lasting another two years.
great material krasi thank you! just so i understand and i am sorry if i missed it in your charts. which of the 2 scenarios are we expecting:
ReplyDelete1. late january 10 week low and late march final 20, 40 week and 4 yr low, or
2. late january 10 week low, late march 20 week low and late june/early july final 40 week and 4 year low.
Thank you for clarifying.
JP
It is not clear because I am not sure. Watching the videos above I would say 40w low June but not 4y low.
DeleteIn this case we have a low after two 18m cycles.... 7 year cycle dividing in three instead in two.
Possible pattern is shown above.
thank you. i agree late june for the 40w low is more plausible. i love your ED into late 2025 ! the challenge now is to locate the final top of this year. will it be this coming week or after the late january 10w low, which then would be early february, which i favour. time will tell. lots of volatility this year. exciting..
DeleteJP
Looking the indicators for a high I would say early February which will be another 10w high.
DeleteThen from 2025 to 2029 the dollar should go up ?
ReplyDeleteYes, the USD death talk is premature maybe after 2029 after the cycle is completed - https://invst.ly/12-itf
DeleteWhy do you think the 4 year cycle low this year will be deeper than most people think?
ReplyDeleteBecause of the pattern at least 15%-20% decline. In the videos above the expectations are for bullish year, presidential cycle just pullback 5%-10%.
DeleteAnd if October 2022 was 4y low, lasting 2 years and 7 months, a little short but possible, after 2026 and 2029 4y low too.
ReplyDeleteIf you use the model with 7 year cycle - yes. If you stick to the Hurst theory the next low in 2024 is the 4y cycle low exactly on schedule and the next one is in 2029.
DeleteSome explanation is in the second post - both are credible and work.... so it is a matter of choice... maybe keeping an eye on both.
I think Krasi has been consistent about 4 year low and then a bullish cycle. Also his forecast called for an earlier 4y low.
ReplyDeleteWhat is different is this current bull run.
I am calling consistently this move a corrective zig-zag when we have not seen 4 year low. This is not the recipe for a strong market. I have never said we saw the 4y low - see the last chart.
DeleteBest case bullish scenario is using the 7 year cycle and ED as a pattern.
Everybody mega bullish again when the best case is ending diagonal - so I will continue consistently calling it fools rally.
Karsi, whats the estimate drop % and SPX target this coming week?
ReplyDeleteI can not make such predictions, I can say it should be lower for 20d cycle low.
Deletenoob here. pardon me. may I know what is the 20d cycle low denote now?
Delete20 day cycle running usually 8-11 trading days - see the second to last chart.
DeleteWhat does the ED mean for S&P and NDX, can you give us theirs chart?
ReplyDeleteIf it goes like ED, there is no recession
I have shown already... and you can draw it yourself it is not so difficult.
DeleteRecessions is the least problem if this is ED - at 3 of ED this market is dead already and after that the next stop is 2200 where it started 50%-60% haircut so pray it is not an ED.
"if" the top is in (50% probability or higher) the first downside target is the 50 dma at 4600spx which should be reached within a couple of weeks. the big assumption is that the top is in. tuesday will be telling..
ReplyDeleteJP
Thanks, I find it, what's the probability of ED?
ReplyDeleteI do not know 50/50 NDX - https://invst.ly/131r7q
DeleteWhere do you think EURJPY goes from here, Krasi?
ReplyDeleteI think lower to support around 140.
DeleteIf this is 20d low then end of next week 5w high and 18m high and THE END?
ReplyDeleteI think it started mid-December so we have one 5w high and now second one is running for 10w/40w high in February.
Deletekrasi does next thursday january 25 +/- make sense for the next 5 week low? thanks
DeleteJP
it looks like the high is in especially if we accelerate the decline into the close.
ReplyDeleteJP
no acceleration to the downside and short term positive divergences. maybe we do get one more high this week after all.
DeleteJP
you are probably right especially after seeing the dow action which looks horrendous. first target should be the 50dma before end of month.
DeleteJP
Looking at NYA I would say that it is 10w low
ReplyDeleteyes agree 5 and 10week low. i like to trade 5 week low at a time:)
DeleteJP
JP, how low this SPX will go for this down?
Deletelets see what kind of a bounce we get the next couple of days and will see then. IF the top is in first target is the 50dms at around 4600spx. the top needs to be confirmed first. need couple of days to confirm
DeleteJP
extremely weak bounce so far. if by tomorrow we don't see real strength the sht will hit the fan next couple of weeks
DeleteJP
It is getting more clear - 10w high in December, 10w low in January and 10w/40w/18m high in February.
ReplyDeleteThen the top will be first week of February?
DeleteTarget?
Deletekarsi, do you mean we get another high or ATH in feb first before crash?
DeleteHis name is K R A S I. Please show some respect. Krasi provides all his information and conment board for F R E E.
DeleteMore likely mid-February.
DeleteI do not have price target until the pattern is clear.
Yes, we should se higher high.
the other cyclical scenario mentioned with krasi over the week end was the potential 40 week low being in march. i hope this does not materialize because it means we will have an outright collapse in the market over the next couple of months and most probably it will be related to the global war escalation. something to keep in mind..
ReplyDeleteJP
Slightly confused of all the comments here. Could yesterday be the 20d low? Thx
ReplyDeleteYes it could be the 20d low even 10w looking NYSE
Deleteso its ATH now?
Deletei don't think this expected bounce will hold. 10week low not before january 25+/- . it gets nullified if we see new highs before but i doubt it.
ReplyDeleteJP
ya it looks weak for now.
DeleteJP, wat are you seeing now? the bounce is mainly due to AAPL? SPX ATH now?
Deletevery strong tape, that's why stops are important... mid-late next week may turn out to be a blowoff top instead of my low. if we go one way up into next week maybe another 75-100 points (possible if blowing off) it will be a gift.. we'll see
DeleteJP
Current view 8x5w cycles for 40w high - https://invst.ly/13266u
ReplyDelete5w high probably on Monday pullback and final push around mid-February.
thank you krasi. the bounce was stronger than expected which most probably will lead to a new high. limited upside against 250+ point downside potential makes you eager to sell it but need to avoid drawdowns.. always a bitch to identify the top. i have two dates in mind jan 25-26 (most probably a low) and feb 9 +/- and i dont know if it will be a low or a high. in your chart it fits as a high, but could as well be a 20 week low ! lets see.
ReplyDeleteJP
JP. this SPX is madness is getting out of hand, any signs of exhaustion? for nothing futures up 30? wtf!!!
Deleteit may be a fake breakout. i have a low end of next week so the upside "should" be limited. today is the usual fck u friday.. lets see.
DeleteJP
what kind of opening is this.weak?
DeleteLooks like clearing stops above 4800?
DeleteKrasi, Why do you think the dollar is going up if they are going to cut rate
ReplyDeleteWhy do you think the dollar is going down if they are going to cut rate?
DeleteJP what kind of bounce is this? ATH closing or fake head?
ReplyDeletefake. opex scam. bonds not confirming this move.
DeleteJP
when is OPEX?
Deletereally strange market, SPX has sudden spike, is it stop hunting?
DeleteStop crushing
Deleteup 60 pt. madness, short covering? I think I give up hope of this market ever coming down. what do you think?
DeleteCould have told you that 800 points ago
DeleteLook, when the rate go up the dollar do the sam
ReplyDelete4900 by Monday 930
ReplyDelete