Weekly preview

Short term - choppy move since mid-December, it looks like correction and a third zig-zag.
Intermediate term - the indices diverge NYSE/DJ have 10w low this week SPX maybe earlier... it is again the few tech stocks making it look strong. Possible 40w high after 25 weeks as the previous two cycles alternate one more 5w cycle.
Long term - this is at least 40w high(6 months long already) I think it is 18m high so after the top we should see decline into at least 40w low into June/July.
Very long term - one way to count is 7y cycle 2002->2009->2016->2022->2029 it fits with ED pattern and higher low in June/July. The other option is stick to the theory 9y cycle 2002->2011->2020->2029 with 54 month(4y) cycle low right on schedule mid-2024 - which fits with flat pattern and testing the low from 2022. The second option has better pattern alignment - important cycle lows/highs are at pattern lows/highs as it should be, the first one has 7y low at a subwave... very odd.

Overall picture - market breadth negative it could move up for divergence, RSI/MACD divergence daily and weekly, mature cycle, pattern five legs of what ever it is, magnificent 7 very toppy all with weekly divergences 5 wave impulses completing and half of them 5 of 5 wedge/ED.
Short said good luck holding longs... maybe this time is different and 20 points higher are worth it.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal. Crossing up and down the MA no clear or extended 10w cycles... not easy to follow the count.
Analysis - final wave completing the correction and turn lower to complete the 4y cycle low. At intermediate term high now topping process.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the suposed fifth wave broke the channel this impulse is bullshit, third zig-zag z-wave for tripple complex pattern looks way better.

Intermediate term - two zig-zags down and up with the same size... waiting for B-wave to be completed and C-wave for a flat should follow.
Alternate wave 4 of ED expected.

Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024.
Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed. Alternate if we are lucky this is some topping pattern triangle or ED and there is one more high in 2025.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - pointing lower, some ticked up... maybe divergence will develop.
McClellan Oscillator - oversold and turned higher.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - ticked up.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - ticked up.
Advance-Decline Issues - ticked up.
Fear Indicator VIX - another higher low.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 20d low and now higher into 20d and 5w high. Other indices made their 10w low this week, the SPX seems made it earlier.

Week 12 for 40w cycle. I expect 40w cycle low in June/July consisting of three extended 10w cycles.
Week 25 this could be the top as with the previous two cycles alternate one more 5w cycle. This top is of at least 40w magnitude and very likely 18m high too.