May 5, 2016
Update
It takes too long the move lower and MACD/RSI broke below the trend lines so the move since mid February is over and correction is running.
The first leg looks corrective and should finish soon on Friday or early Monday at support MA50/23,6% Fibo. It is a little bit too early for 40 day cycle low... not impossible but I think we will see one more leg lower around the end of May for 40 day/20 week cycle low before more significant move higher.
Short term it looks like a-b-c with "c" as a diagonal with two more waves up and down to finish this leg... on Friday?
May 4, 2016
USD
The pattern looked like a triangle for more than a year, but after the plunge in USD/JPY it looks now like finished corrective zig-zag W-X-Y.
Yesterday the measurements were met and we have reversal candle. If my analysis is right we should see the final wave higher for the USD dollar in the next 9-12 months and in the mean time commodities should correct after the rally from early this year.
USD/JPY cycle analysis bottoms instead of tops - basically the same 8-9 year cycle. The next major low is 2020-2021... do you remember my post "Secular trends" and the period 2020-2022? Add USD/JPY to stocks,yields,precious metals... just another coincidence:)
This should be a 4 year cycle low... worst case one more test of the low in 1-2 months. I expect one more leg higher, "M pattern" and the next 4 year cycle and the 8 year cycle should make a top and USD/JPY heading lower until 2020-2021.
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