Weekly preview

Another week the same price action - one day wonder followed by... nothing. The "strength" comes from the tech sector NDX/SOX, other indexes like NYSE,DJIA,DJT,RUT,XLF,XLE are lagging. After BA now MMM,INTC,XLNX with 10% gaps lower.... is this really strong broad based rally?

Overall it would be great to see one more pull back and higher high(what I am showing in the last several weeks) than we would have nice looking pattern.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - I will stick with this count until I see impulsive reversal. NYSE and DJIA with some corrective sideway move, SP500 drifting higher but I see three waves... either v/3 finishing as ED or flat for w4.

Intermediate term - pullback for 1-2 weeks for daily cycle low, to test support and MA50 followed by one more high will look great. This will be nice clean pattern.
Alternate is we have w-x-y from the low in Dec.2018, but I would not bet on such pattern until I see confirmation for reversal.

Long term - one more leg lower to finish wave IV from 2009. Decline in three waves and a low in Q1.2020 will fit better with cycles. I do not know how to count an impulse, but if I am wrong it is wave 1/V.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - weakness most of the indicators with divergences, the next bigger move is lower.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal with divergences.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - divergences.
Fear Indicator VIX - refuses to go lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - divergences.


HURST CYCLES
Day 33, decline for 1-2 weeks for daily cycle low expected.

Week 18, I suspect stealth 20 week cycle low and the coming high is of 40 week cycle degree.

Weekly preview

Another boring week... nothing changed, pullback running and another high expected.

Last week mentioned something about cycles so to clarify - the message is the current high should be of 40 week cycle degree. In this case when the decline starts the price should move lower with short pauses for a few months.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - as long as we do not see impulsive break below the trend line/MA200/gap/support I expect one more high.

Intermediate term - nothing new.... up and down around the resistance levels and divergences.

Long term - one more leg lower to finish wave IV from 2009. Decline in three waves and a low in Q1.2020 will fit better with cycles.
I do not know how to count an impulse, but if I am wrong it is wave 1/V.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - weakness most of the indicators with divergences, the next bigger move is lower.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - oversold a lot of complacency again.
Advance-Decline Issues - divergence.


HURST CYCLES
The average cycle length for 40 week cycle is something like 32-36 weeks. High-to-high analysis - if you count from top to top we are at week 30. For example the previous 40 week cycle high was from the Jan.2018 high to the September.2018 high with length 34 weeks. So this high looks more and more like 40 week cycle degree and when the declines begins it will be for 40 week cycle low, or decline for a few months without a pause several weeks for 20 week cycle low.

The next question is the Dec.2018 low 18 month cycle low or not(longer or shorter 18 month cycles)? The longer it takes the more likely is that the scenario below is playing out - 4 year cycle low in Q1.2020.

Day 29 nearing the top of the current daily cycle.

Week 17.... I think the first 20 week cycle low is behind us and the coming high is of 40 week cycle degree.