Weekly preview

The expected move into 10w cycle high has been confirmed. Market breadth is signaling possible low, we have bearish 10w cycle high(in the time zone for reversal), currently impulse higher running - reversal or just c-wave of expanded flat... tough decision if we saw the low or not.
I still think we should see one more lower low to complete double zig-zag before we see reversal higher. In this case next week we should see expanded flat completed, followed by final sell off.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal, the price broke above MA10 at last, but it is time to look for a high already.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term a low in a few weeks or we saw it this week.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - a-b-c double zig-zag or the move is completed - difficult call.

Intermediate term - I see W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y=W.
The trendline is broken now waiting for a low and some kind of MA200/trend line test in summer.

Long term - We saw the high, if we are lucky this is b-wave, if not huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed and it will get very ugly in the next years.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - strong turn higher looks like a bottom or one more lower low with divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - hit very overbought level.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - turned up.
Bullish Percentage - turned up.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned up.
Fear Indicator VIX - still moving in a range.
Advance-Decline Issues - close to the overbought level, but lower high.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - we should see 20d high next week and it looks like this will be the fourth one or 10w high.

Week 13 for the 20w cycle, week 34 for the 40w cycle(average length 32-36 weeks). The indices are close to intermediate term low, but we have bearish 10w cycle high so probably one more lower low.

Weekly preview

The indices are weak, I think we should see move up to complete the 10w high and final decline. The other options are continuation lower or that was the intermediate term low - looking the indicators and market breadth they are less likely.
One more 10w cycle looks too long, but one more 5w cycle to complete the decline is ok.
The Fibo projections I have measured are slightly below 3700 and 3500. Support levels are 3700 and strong one 3600.... I guess something between 3600 and 3700 is the target for the end of the correction.


TRADING
Trading trigger - still sell signal, very weak cycle high 37 days lower so after the high we should see lower low.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - one option is continuation lower for double zigzag(green) or we have not seen the 10w high and more sideways price action will follow(yellow).
Interesting if you measure the next extension levels 1.38 and 1.618 and both scenarios show the same targets.

Intermediate term - I see W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y=W.
The trendline is broken now waiting for a low in the next few weeks and some kind of MA200/trend line test in summer.
Maybe some kind of bottoming with divergence similar to the previous low taking one month which is 5w cycle.

Long term - We saw the high, if we are lucky this is b-wave, if not huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed and it will get very ugly in the next years.
The same with the indicators just pointing lower so some kind of bottoming for several weeks is expected.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - bearish no signs of a low.
McClellan Oscillator - oscillating around the zero line.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - staying in oversold territory.
Fear Indicator VIX - up and down.
Advance-Decline Issues - oscillating around the oversold level.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - we have 20d high as expected and we should see in the next days or saw 20d low. It is difficult to place the 5w/10w lows with high confidence. Example four 5w cycles from the February low.

Week 12 for the 20w cycle if we count from the previous lowest low.