Nov 23, 2013

Weekly review

Short term view - flat week or the indexes will squeeze again several points higher.
Intermediate term view - nearing an intermediate term top.

Ok this past week I was expecting a pullback,another high and topping to begin. Well I was wrong - the pullback was deeper and lasted longer than expected and there were no time for topping:). With the short trading week and the holidays I do not expect huge moves up or down. I expect now the indexes to continue their work on ATH and the topping not to forget:)

Nothing changed this week, the indexes have squeezed several points higher. I still think that the next intermediate term move will be a correction, and again dance with the bulls until the music plays, but stay near the exits.
Short term we will see higher prices, probably SP500 will reach its target 1810-1815.

Short term - I have no idea for the exact path. Up to the trend line and pullback, or in reverse order pullback and up to the trend line.....
- Triple cross(EMA10 and EMA20 crossing EMA50) - short term trend up.

Intermediate term - waiting for the correction.... we will see if I am right.
- Trend direction EMA50/MACD - the intermediate term trend is up, but we are seeing MACD divergence.
- Momentum Histogram/RSI - momentum is up,but not really strong. I expect to see another histogram divergence.

Long term - we have reached the point where the price should decide to follow the pattern, as for the last 6 months, or it will negate it and go parabolic.
- Trend direction EMA50/MACD - long term trend is up - the price above MA50 and MACD above zero. Watch out for the MACD divergence.
- Momentum Histogram/RSI - momentum has turned up, the intermediate term trend is up.

The Market Breadth Indicators - they do not inspire me to be bullish, even with ATH after ATH....
McClellan Oscillator - another lower high and divergence is coming.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal, we see a divergence for the short term - new ATH not even a buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal..
Bullish Percentage - buy signal, do not get exited:)
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - yet another divergence... new ATH and another lower peak.
Fear Indicator VXO - very narrow BB, which means expect explosive move in some direction... do you think it will be to the downside??? For the whole year 2013 this levels were a bottom.
Advance-Decline Issues - expect another lower high and divergence of a bigger degree.
Put/Call ratio - making several lower highs.
Percent of Stocks above MA200 - do not keep up with the indexes.

The 40 day is now really extended... The longest one, for this 18 month cycle, lasted 32TD and this one is already 33TD long. I must admit, I was not expecting such strong move in the last 20 week cycle of the 18 month cycle.

At week 53 of the 18 month cycle. It has reached size and length where we should see the top of the cycle. Now it should be only downhill for the next 7 to 9 weeks...

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Currently we have 11 of a countdown and I expect to see the 13 next week.

No comments:

Post a Comment