Feb 3, 2014


UPDATE - I wrote many times, that there is too much greed and it is purged with sharp declines.... well now you know how it looks like. It was not different this time. I thought we will see such think after a rebound for 2-3 days.

UPDATE - support and trend line hit now a bounce for iv expected...

I wrote that the EW picture is not clear and I will switch to TA which says "lower on Monday, probably with lower low".... now I think the mess starts making sense from EW perspective too. Wave 4 was not over and it was a rare expanding flat and now we should be in iii of 5. If I am right support around 1750 should hold and the MACD divergence should not be negated, else the next move lower has begun and it will feel like a crash.


  1. Yup, history repeats itself.... we saw a big red bar now... so if it is going to move the way how it was in 2007, then we should see few green bars tomorrow or day after before another sharp correction :-)

    1. I knew that they want one more time lower but this time the size really surprised me....
      On the other side DAX for example is not impressed from the selling at all and made its pattern perfectly.
      I think this means this is an exhaustion bar and we will see the rebound now., but we should wait for some kind of a confirmation.
      Charts which I have posted

  2. krasi, any updates on EEM after today's big drop? do you see positive divergence or more selling to come?

    1. No divergences or any signs for a reversal and it looks like we have 5 waves from the top 41,85... so some kind of a rebound(like the indexes), but after that another lower low.
      It is possible that we have A-B-C 5-3-5 from the top 43,52 but I think the indexes DI,SP500 have one more leg lower... I do not know if EEM could hold the current low after a rebound if the indexes make lower low.

    2. Well I think one of the best scenario is the drop will be ended around 1720 range and then rebound, because AB=CD and it'd be 110 points of drop and now it's in oversold territory. However, the momentum at the moment is till huge and no sign of rebound on Feb 3rd, that's a bit of worry. So need to watch closely...

      The worst case scenario is drop till 1709 (the 200MA, and one of the old top)... and since 1709 is not a strong resistant, it may not be able to hold it until we could see the strong resistant around 1650-1680 before any significant reversals.

    3. I think 1730 is the target - http://stocktwits.com/message/19699485
      Bounce as expected for iv and one final move we have strong support at 1730