Feb 11, 2014
Update
Its time at least for a pullback
I was expecting 10-15 points pullback and move to the 1810-1815 resistance zone, but SP500 is much stronger moving almost to 1825.... Now I think it should move lower. At 1775 there is gap/support/61,8% Fibo and as long as it stays above this level and it does not move impulsive lower the red scenario is the preferred one. The green one makes more sense for me, but the market does not care what I think:)
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If Yellen had said anything worth reporting the market would have set new highs. Hehe
ReplyDeleteI do not think that news are important or what Yellen says. I think the market/the herd/the traders nave bias and look for an excuse(news/data) why the market should go lower/higher. The charts usually show what they want and I watch only the charts.
DeleteSometimes I can not stop laughing when I read why it is going higher/lower:)
Now the crowd seems to be exited again... but it will not last for a long.
Well the market was excited today and IWM blew past the 50 dma - does this have any impact on your thesis?
ReplyDeleteThanks
For the intermediate term I do not have thesis. I wrote follow the market higher and I keep an eye on both scenarios...
DeleteFor the short term no change - pullback... this is exhaustion bar with divergences.
If you mean this is very strong move it's party time.... well the strongest moves higher are? - in bear markets. Burning the fuel too fast is not good for the bulls.
Investors Intelligence % Bears before the correction 14,1% after the correction 17,4% - 17% is still extreme low no fear too much greed.
My thesis - this move will fail, but I do not know when now or with marginal higher high.... that's why just follow the market which is higher for now and preferred scenario is red higher high.