Intermediate term view - pullback after a short term top and another move higher.
Nothing really interesting this week, as expected small pullback than higher to the 2030-2040 area.
Topping should continue next week. I think we will see more small up and down moves between 2000-2040 before a short term top.
The main plan stays the same - I think we saw strength and any move lower should be just a pullback followed by another higher high. Strength does not reverse just like that.
But we will watch the price action closely and if we see an impulse lower breaking below 1950 we will switch to the alternate scenario - move below 1820.
TECHNICAL PICTURE
Short term - it is difficult to predict the exact path, but I think on Monday the index will move higher than it should turn lower and break below the first minor support 2023-2025 and continue lower to MA50 and later support around 2000.
Intermediate term - nothing really changed this week.... waiting to see after a short term top how the move lower will look like.
Long term - the long term picture is unchanged.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - oscillators look a little bit tired a need a pause, the trend following indicators have no change - swing higher is running.
McClellan Oscillator - after several peeks in overbought territory now refuses to move higher. We have lower high.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - strength above 75, buy signal.
Fear Indicator VIX - crashing lower.... probably the next higher low.
Advance-Decline Issues - lower high too.
HURST CYCLES
Day 16 of the current 40 day cycle. I think next week we should see a short term top.
Week 3 of the current 20 week and 40 week cycle. If the alternate scenario plays out I will switch back to the previous cycle count the we are in the last 20 week cycle of the 18 month cycle.
Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Day 6 of a countdown... nothing interesting on the daily or weekly chart.
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