Jul 7, 2015


UPDATE - it played out perfect... bravo mister market:) The final push lower was missing now we have it - SP500 cash index lower low 2044 , sharp reversal to print bullish candle and divergences on different indicators. 37 points rally is strong enough for me. I think move higher has begun.

DJ made lower low and fulfilled the condition for 5 waves to finish c/4. SP500 cash index did not make lower low... but my SP500 CFD charts are showing me low at 2041 one point higher than the target I wanted to see.... I do not know how to interpret this situation finished move or not:)
Four days later no lower close than the huge bar. I would say 99% this is exhaustion bar which marks the end of a trend and not one marking the beginning of a new trend.
European and US indexes hitting MA200 on the daily chart, European indexes met their targets which I am showing for a while...

If we see a big green candle today this will be a confirmation that the correction is over. Alternate scenario is some kind of a flat is running for iv of c/4. SP500 will move higher to 2085-2090 and move lower to finish the correction.

CAC40 perfect measurement and followed exactly the path which I am showing for two weeks.

DAX only 0,681 for the last zigzag.


  1. Sorry to bother again: any gold commentary forth coming?

    1. Nothing changed - two small red candles. The positive is GDX/GDXJ printed bullish candle and with silver smell like a bottom.
      It is possible that we have a bottom, but there is no confirmation. When I see something I will post to warn readers.

      I do not know how much experience do you have, but here some food for thought:
      Do not focus so much on nailing the exact bottom/top, you will catch it once and five times you will be wrong(me too, the ratio will be probably even worse:).
      Develop rules when to take profits and when to open a position. There is no single right answer - it depends on the trader and how he can handle risk/losses.

      Simple math - you can make much more money if you wait for confirmation than trying to enter as close as possible to top/bottom.
      First you can open bigger positions because the stop level is more narrow. Second you success rate will be much much higher and the ratio win/loss much better.

      For example - I am expecting a bottom selling 50% of short position, early bullish signal impulse and lower high on the hourly chart sell the rest 50% and open 50% long,
      confirmed bullish signal impulse and higher low on the daily chart another 50% long - this way you transition from short to long.
      If it does not work out you still have 50% position and add to it if the trend continues it's path.

      Or you can handle risk/losses and say ok I will enter now and if it moves below 1100 I will add more and close the position if it moves below 1050... there is different traders.

    2. With the drop today we know now that something to upside has begun when we see GDX above 16,95-17, silver above 15,50
      gold above 1163