Jul 7, 2015

Update

UPDATE - it played out perfect... bravo mister market:) The final push lower was missing now we have it - SP500 cash index lower low 2044 , sharp reversal to print bullish candle and divergences on different indicators. 37 points rally is strong enough for me. I think move higher has begun.



DJ made lower low and fulfilled the condition for 5 waves to finish c/4. SP500 cash index did not make lower low... but my SP500 CFD charts are showing me low at 2041 one point higher than the target I wanted to see.... I do not know how to interpret this situation finished move or not:)
Four days later no lower close than the huge bar. I would say 99% this is exhaustion bar which marks the end of a trend and not one marking the beginning of a new trend.
European and US indexes hitting MA200 on the daily chart, European indexes met their targets which I am showing for a while...

If we see a big green candle today this will be a confirmation that the correction is over. Alternate scenario is some kind of a flat is running for iv of c/4. SP500 will move higher to 2085-2090 and move lower to finish the correction.



CAC40 perfect measurement and followed exactly the path which I am showing for two weeks.


DAX only 0,681 for the last zigzag.

3 comments:

  1. Sorry to bother again: any gold commentary forth coming?

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    Replies
    1. Nothing changed - two small red candles. The positive is GDX/GDXJ printed bullish candle and with silver smell like a bottom.
      It is possible that we have a bottom, but there is no confirmation. When I see something I will post to warn readers.

      I do not know how much experience do you have, but here some food for thought:
      Do not focus so much on nailing the exact bottom/top, you will catch it once and five times you will be wrong(me too, the ratio will be probably even worse:).
      Develop rules when to take profits and when to open a position. There is no single right answer - it depends on the trader and how he can handle risk/losses.

      Simple math - you can make much more money if you wait for confirmation than trying to enter as close as possible to top/bottom.
      First you can open bigger positions because the stop level is more narrow. Second you success rate will be much much higher and the ratio win/loss much better.

      For example - I am expecting a bottom selling 50% of short position, early bullish signal impulse and lower high on the hourly chart sell the rest 50% and open 50% long,
      confirmed bullish signal impulse and higher low on the daily chart another 50% long - this way you transition from short to long.
      If it does not work out you still have 50% position and add to it if the trend continues it's path.

      Or you can handle risk/losses and say ok I will enter now and if it moves below 1100 I will add more and close the position if it moves below 1050... there is different traders.

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    2. With the drop today we know now that something to upside has begun when we see GDX above 16,95-17, silver above 15,50
      gold above 1163

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