Aug 12, 2015
Update
I have posted DXY charts expecting a turn lower any moment. In comments I wrote that the USD is the joker referring precious metals, but obviously the impact is much bigger.
What happened - China announcing currency devaluation and enters the currency wars. Add to this weak economy and for the FED will be difficult to raise rates in September(now higher probability it will not do it) USD is tanking, yields lower, bonds higher, stocks lower, gold/silver/miners higher.
Last chance for the bulls is this count below. The indexes should just turn up and not look back. A move under 2044 and it is game over... open space below to 1980.
DAX the same story bullish only if it turns higher and finish the move as a-b-c. Only a retracement and move below the chanel will be bearish.
GDXJ has just gapped above the gap 21(my minimum target) and continued higher. We know now, how the move up looks like and it looks bullish. I think that an intermediate term bottom hit has higher probability than another lower low(of course I want to see 4 and 5). It should continue climbing the support/resistance ladder to confirm an strength and impulse from the bottom.
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"A low behind us has higher probability". Everyone and their mother is looking for a lower low after this rally concludes. Not unreasonable for sure. But, the thought has gained a lot of company over the last several months. Maybe we go a lot higher before we do in fact turn back or maybe we just left the lows. Your statement above in quotes means final low is in?. If not, how do you see this playing out in GDXJ? Kindest regards.
ReplyDeleteI think the low for the miners is behind us (intermediate low for the next few months). Of course I would like to see this 4 and 5:)
DeletePrevious important lows were tested and I am sure we will see deep retracement.
See the previous occasion Bullish percentage at zero - http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPGDM&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p17752572509
GDX higher low GDXJ lower low. GDXJ is already in the price territory of the previous lows from December 2014 and March 2015.
Overlapping waves, this time probably it will be inverse with the lows:) GDXJ looks stronger.
Gold one more lower low is possible, it is not so strong.
Thanks a Lot Krasi for all the valuable information you share here, ,.....about SP500.. looks like there is a head and shoulder shaping here, as the (3) on your chart is the Head.. what do you think? if that happens, means the high is behind.
ReplyDeleteBest Regards,
I know what you mean.... I was arguing a lot about H&S DJI and SP500 with other guys:) Yes it is possible, everything is possible that is why 2044 is crucial support. As I wrote it is game over below 2044, the bullish pattern is busted one brief stop at 1980 and it is open space below.
DeleteIn fact I suspect just the opposite is happening. I think a stealth correction is running since May and finished yesterday. DJI looks better to explain what I mean - two zigzags lower with the same size W-X-Y corrective no impulse(leading diagonal busted), 40 week cycle low(it came later for DJI), market breadth pointing to a bottom, europe looks still bullish cycles and EW, look at weekly chart stochastic and wiliams r% indicators they are pointing to a bottom on the weekly chart....
I think the bears will be surprised unpleasant one more time and the move up will continue longer and higher than most expect sucking in all the bulls and killing the last bear left before reversal.
That is my suspicion at the moment and of course 2044 should hold and we need confirmation in the next few weeks.
I'm with you on a S&P rally here Krasi, a big one. I just wonder whether gold will rally with t or sell off? Are you viewing today as a shake out or maybe we test 1030 before moving appreciably higher?
ReplyDeleteIt is a tough call... gold is at a cross road at the moment. Either finished a-b-c and lower or wave 4 and higher for wave 5... like the miners. I have the feeling it will make one more high, but now it is more guessing what the market will do. At the bottom you have patterns cycles indicators... now it is waiting to see what is the next market's step to confirm one or another pattern.
DeleteI just wonder whether gold will rally with it...
ReplyDelete