Feb 12, 2016
Update
We have a new low and enough waves in place to call a bottom. Many markets forex,bonds,precious metals with moves which look like a buying climax... If we see a strong green day this is the bottom.
The more "bearish" option (shown on the chart) this is still wave iv of 5 and there is one more move lower - Fibo target 1796.
I would not be surprised to see this scenario. The big boys do not play fair:) and usually the reversals happen over the weekend. So grinding lower whole day and you are wondering "Should I buy or not, I do not want to be caught with a gap in the opposite direction over the weekend".
Commenting about scenarios and MA... Here is visual the chart looks perfect - channel, Fibo, resistance levels, MA50 and MA200 retest. This is my preferred scenario for 2016. If the price moves above 2050 we will switch to the bullish scenario new ATH.
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If we were to rally, where do u see it go at the minimum and maximum?
ReplyDeleteAnd would it just a rally for another bigger selloff? Thanks!
Two options - first clear correction lower a-b-c is finishing and move to new ATH begins minimum 2300-2400.
DeleteSecond option we have one zig-zag lower, now we will see connecting wave X higher followed by another zig-zag lower October-November 2016. I prefer this scenario. Targets - resistance and Fibo levels 1980-2020, so roughly 200 points. More important is time it should last long enough so that most traders forget about the pain and stop talking about bear market and hopefully start talking about new ATH.
Krasi, what's your thoughts on the 50 MA and 200 MA crossover last mth? That's what we see in 2008.
ReplyDeleteThis is a sign that we are in a correction of a bigger degree... but not a guarantee that a severe bear market has begun. There were crosses in 2010 and 2011 too.
DeleteWhen you speak of MA - when the price moves too far from the MAs it turns back and "kiss" them again:) I have looked at my scenario with X wave and the first leg higher should hit MA50 around 1950 and the second leg should hit MA200 around 2010... interesting.
At the same time this levels are resistance and Fibo levels too.
Hi Krasi, what if we continue to go down like 1937? A waterfall effect?
DeleteThan we will follow the market and trade on the short side...
DeleteThe last rally is on very very low volume. . . Anyway my first comment has an error (sorry!) it should the monthly EMA5 and MA 25, you can find it in 2008.
ReplyDeleteBased on that... I don't think we will see ATH before we go down. . . Our target should be around 1573 (.382 fib retrace from 2015 top)
I am saying the same. I think we will see more to the downside, but not now first retracement at least 50%.
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