Feb 26, 2016


I am busy in the next 10 days and I do not have time to post.

Short term it looks like SP500 wants to challenge the lower resistance level and Fibo 50% retracement around 1975 (futures almost touched it). Alternate scenario we have an expanded flat and this is wave b finishing today with a steep decline to follow to around 1880 to finish the correction. In both cases the next bigger move should be lower.
I think the beginning of March will be negative we have ECB meeting on 10.03 and FOMC on 16.03. After that the indexes should turn up and end March green. It is unrealistic to expect the price to continue higher so steep we have already 150 points from the bottom, on the other side this move should reset the bearish sentiment after a correction for almost nine months and it is unrealistic to expect to last only two weeks.

Here is again the monthly chart - at the beginning of February I have compared the price action with the previous two bear markets and I wrote that it is not time to be bearish and to expect test of the low and than to see the prices higher. The price continue to follow the same path as in 2000 and 2008 and if this continue in March we should see green monthly candle.

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