Intermediate term view - higher for several weeks
We saw a green week and now we have a confirmation for a bottom. We have strong move from the bottom it looks like impulse so the move higher should not be over.
Nothing really new to analyze, I think we should see a move higher for weeks to reset the bearish sentiment. We will just follow the market and than see if it is only corrective or to expect new ATH.
TECHNICAL PICTURE
Short term - I think the week will start higher, but than the price should turn lower for a pullback.
Intermediate term - we have a wave higher close to the previous high and MA50 now expecting a pullback. I hope we will see a decent pullback for a nice entry not like in October 2015 just higher.
Long term - we saw a follow through this week and it looks like a confirmation for a double bottom. The oscillators showing divergences and I expect a move higher for weeks.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - are moving higher after divergences last week.
McClellan Oscillator - showed strength reached slightly overbought levels.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - buy signal.
Fear Indicator VIX - moving lower after divergences.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.
HURST CYCLES
I think we saw an intermediate term bottom... 40 week cycle low and this is week 1 of the next cycle.
Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Price flip higher on the weekly chart, setup at 5 on the daily chart... so far we have a confirmation for a bullish price action.
What's you updated view on interest rates (i.e. TLT)
ReplyDeleteNothing has changed since the last long term update http://practicaltechnicalanalysis.blogspot.co.at/2015/12/long-term-update.html
ReplyDeleteTLT finished the zig-zag higher. I think we have important top and TLT should move lower (interest rates higher) for months.
Hello krasi,
ReplyDeleteI fully agree to your update and to the outlook you gave for the major US equity markets.
We have to consider that meanwhile the US equity stocks are in a bear modus and thus what we actually see is more probably just a bear market rally within a bullish cycle market window into End Q1 beginning Q2.
carnap
A x wave should be an appropriate count for the movement we will see the next coming weeks.
Mid of May the bullish window will close and a further and probably remarkable down move with a break of the February Lows will follow. Hopefully we will then see real panic in the market which will lead to a market wash out and a real bottom for the next bull market in 2017.