Feb 20, 2016

Weekly preview

Short term view - pullback next week
Intermediate term view - higher for several weeks

We saw a green week and now we have a confirmation for a bottom. We have strong move from the bottom it looks like impulse so the move higher should not be over.

Nothing really new to analyze, I think we should see a move higher for weeks to reset the bearish sentiment. We will just follow the market and than see if it is only corrective or to expect new ATH.

Short term - I think the week will start higher, but than the price should turn lower for a pullback.

Intermediate term - we have a wave higher close to the previous high and MA50 now expecting a pullback. I hope we will see a decent pullback for a nice entry not like in October 2015 just higher.

Long term - we saw a follow through this week and it looks like a confirmation for a double bottom. The oscillators showing divergences and I expect a move higher for weeks.

The Market Breadth Indicators - are moving higher after divergences last week.
McClellan Oscillator - showed strength reached slightly overbought levels.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - buy signal.
Fear Indicator VIX - moving lower after divergences.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.

I think we saw an intermediate term bottom... 40 week cycle low and this is week 1 of the next cycle.

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Price flip higher on the weekly chart, setup at 5 on the daily chart... so far we have a confirmation for a bullish price action.


  1. What's you updated view on interest rates (i.e. TLT)

  2. Nothing has changed since the last long term update http://practicaltechnicalanalysis.blogspot.co.at/2015/12/long-term-update.html
    TLT finished the zig-zag higher. I think we have important top and TLT should move lower (interest rates higher) for months.

  3. Hello krasi,
    I fully agree to your update and to the outlook you gave for the major US equity markets.
    We have to consider that meanwhile the US equity stocks are in a bear modus and thus what we actually see is more probably just a bear market rally within a bullish cycle market window into End Q1 beginning Q2.
    A x wave should be an appropriate count for the movement we will see the next coming weeks.
    Mid of May the bullish window will close and a further and probably remarkable down move with a break of the February Lows will follow. Hopefully we will then see real panic in the market which will lead to a market wash out and a real bottom for the next bull market in 2017.