Feb 4, 2016
Is it the move lower finished...? Not an easy call, I think a few more days lower. I have watched the charts a lot after the crazy day yesterday, forex markets not stocks.... take a step back and look at the big picture - I would say nothing has changed. What I mean - if you remember I wrote EUR/USD should move higher(DXY lower) in an a-b-c move and that is exactly what happened after two months in a triangle we saw sudden burst higher for the EUR/USD. Everything as expected, USD lower, stocks lower, commodities higher - moves against the long term trends for several months. When EUR/USD moves higher the DAX moves lower and when USD/JPY moves lower stocks move lower risk off. When this two forex pairs finish their intermediate term moves we should see the trends to reverse for several months - USD and stocks higher and commodities lower (THIS SHOULD BE TRADEABLE LOW long term reversal for commodities). USD/JPY one final low to 114-115 expected. EUR/USD broke out of its range and we are now in wave "c" from a-b-c which begun in early December. Target is 1,12-1,13, waves 4 and 5 missing to finish C. The DAX is missing one final move for v of 5 to finish the whole move lower which begun in early December. Look at the turn dates for EUR/USD USD/JPY and compare them with DAX and SPX what a coincidence:). Based on this thoughts and observations I think we are close to an important low(for US it could be higher low), but not there yet a few more days. If I am wrong this intermediate term trend changes which I wrote about above are happening now yesterday/today/tomorrow. Reaction from the support level yesterday. My conclusion looking at the other markets is that we are not finished to the downside. As long as it stays below 1947 and we do not see a reversal for USD/JPY the direction is lower.