Jun 15, 2016


Question from KALI - The technicals and cycles are starting to look like a bounce will occur in few days, and perhaps the move lower or higher as you indicated. At what point would you look to enter or short the market?

It will be easier to explain it with charts - yes it looks like bounce is coming. Long entry - if a see one more lower low with divergences, short entry - wait for a zig-zag higher to retrace part of the sell off.

On Friday the move looked like impulse and I was expecting bounce before FOMC..... wrong, the pattern changed but not the bigger picture which remains bearish. That is why day trading is difficult:) the patterns change too often.
With that said the short term charts below look ok because we start seeing confirmation on longer time frames and the indicators.

The bullish scenario is more like trying to fit it to the charts... and let's say ok for SP500, but for other indexes it does not look ok at all.
The bearish scenario... nothing against it. Russell2000,Nasdaq,DAX all look the same and easy to count no need to fit anything. Wave 4 expected and one more lower low with divergences for wave 5. The McClellan Oscillator at -55 sending the same message - we are near to a short term bottom.

This is a try to see bullish scenario. Two impulses lower with the same size to finish a corrective zig-zag.

Looking at the other indexes this one has much higher probability.

Russell2000 looks easier to count - it looks like impulse with 4 in progress.

Nasdaq the same story even the DAX is currently in wave 4. So one more move lower is expected and than higher for a few days.


  1. Love these updates. They help me anticipate moves and keeps me alert. Thanks.

    1. Sometimes I am wrong especially for the short term, but it is better than nothing:) At least we can have a trading plan.

  2. Thanks so much. Your analysis of different possible paths are very insightful.

    - Kali