Jun 7, 2016
Update
A slight change, obviously the mess from last week was wave 4 and wave 5 is running.... it has either finished or it will be completed today. We have five waves higher, price struggling with the resistance zone and MACD/RSI divergences - the plan stays the same pullback for a few days. From trading perspective no change, only the area for the pullback is now 5 points higher 2075-2080 around the trend line and MA200. If the price moves below 2070 / 50% Fibo / the lower trend line / MA200 something more bearish is developing. The danger is that this is the top of the move which begun in February, but we will watch how the decline develops and second the stop is very tight so the risk is not so high.
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Thanks for the timely update. It will be very interesting how this works out.
ReplyDeleteCrawling higher 20-30 points was expected, but not for so long 7 trading days already. The market tries to confuse the traders:) SP500 now with high above the April high. At first glance it looks like final wave to finish the move from the February low, but DJIA and Europe will look better with pullback and one more rally higher.
DeleteI will stick to the plan until I see an impulsive move below 2070.
Do you still think this uptrend is a b wave with a c wave to follow?
ReplyDeleteIt is not a new uptrend higher and there will be a move lower in July below the last low 2026.
DeleteNow for the exact labeling and timing:
- SP500 counts better as wave 5 to finish the move from the February low - turning lower now after wave 5?
- DJIA not even close to the last high and counts better as the first leg higher from wave b - one more leg higher to finish zig-zag for wave b flat correction?
Who is right? I do not know. I will stick to the plan more to the upside in June as long as I do not see an impulse below 2070.
Yes, I look at the djia too and see a much clear pattern. Thanks for all you do!
DeleteHow did you come to the conclusion that wave 5 "has either finished or it will be completed today." with so much conviction? I'm hopeful you're right, and so far so good! But very interested in how you knew?
ReplyDeleteEW and Fibonacci measurements - you have enough waves higher for finished impulse(Monday) but first target 1=5 around 2116 hit on Tuesday.
DeleteAnd you have usually one small divergence (see RSI) between iii and v of 3 and bigger divergence between 3 and 5.
The second target is 5=0,618x(from 1 to the top of 3) around 2132, not impossible but with the divergences in place it has lower probability.
Maybe we just finished w1 of wave 5..w1 longest wave so next w2 only .382 of w1.
ReplyDeleteIt is possible..... I had as an option wave 5 to around 2180-2190, but this w1 looks too long. Now when you mention take w1 as the longest wave then wave 5 will look very good - will overshoot the ATH, but not too high.
DeleteAs long as it moves higher in June I do not care about the labeling:)