Jun 18, 2016

Weekly preview

Short term view - one more leg higher of a retracement expected.
Intermediate term view - lower in the next few weeks.

We have an impulse lower and the idea for wave C of an expanded flat looks good so far. After an impulse we should see a retracement and at least one more leg in the same direction so the move lower is not over. I do not know a pattern which points to a reversal after an initial impulse so... I do not see an alternate bullish scenario sudden reversal and higher highs.

Short term - I think we are somewhere in wave b of 2. We have a resistance zone and the Fibo levels between 2085-2105. One more leg higher into the resistance zone is expected.

Intermediate term - the trend line has been broken. Wave 2(from the chart above) should test it before the price continuing lower for wave 3.

Long term - all oscillators look bearish, the indexes are working on wave 2 lower.

The Market Breadth Indicators - divergences, but still no strong moves lower. This should change when the next wave lower begins.
McClellan Oscillator - slightly oversold and turned higher.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal with divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal in the middle of the range.
Bullish Percentage - sell signal with divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - making a pause after a sharp move higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range after several tops.

Day 20 of the current 40 day cycle. You can split the 40 day cycle further 20 days, 10 days and so on. We are seeing a short term bottom for the 20 day cycle. It is well visible in the middle of the previous 40 day cycle too - the circles.

Week 5 of the 20 week cycle. It looks to me like M pattern which means that the 40 week cycle is the dominant and the next shorter cycles the 20 week are forming something like double top or "M". In this case we should see the right leg of the "M" into September-October.

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Day 6 of a setup on the daily chart and still no price flip on the weekly chart. This should happen next week(unless we see a close above 2100) and than a steady move lower should begin.
The histogram looks bearish - divergence and heading lower.

And this is Russell2000 the measurement for expanded flat is 1070 around the 50% Fibo level.


  1. Thank you!!! that helps a lot. Also, do you think you can add some charts for the RUT? Thanks....learning a lot so far

  2. Thank you Krasi...interesting...Futures are sharply high

    1. Yes, higher as expected, but it should make lower high according EW. I wrote last week that we should see volatility before the "Brexit" vote. The moves lower and higher a definitely very sharp.
      Let's see if EW trumps news:)

  3. absolutely....will be interested to see how things play out. Do you trade options?futures? or stocks?

    1. I trade usually ETFs - indexes,commodities,bonds.... where I see an interesting pattern.

      I have send you an email and deliberately deleted your email below.

  4. Hi Krasi, does it look invalidated (as of time of this post)?

    1. Technically it will be invalidated above 2120, but for a few days I think we have a different pattern - a huge triangle. I was thinking to post a chart, but I have decided to wait until tomorrow so that the volatility is behind us, for more accurate chart.

  5. I am confused.. pls enlighten what's a triangle?

    It sounds invalidated to me? No longer going down but bullish ?