Jun 24, 2016


This is why I did not want to post charts before the news:) I hope you was not long both patterns were pointing lower. As always before a news the price is pushed in one direction and than move in the opposite direction follows. That is the way it works. The market was pricing in "Stay" in this case sell the news lower to around 2030 and it was surprised with "Leave" and sell off - back to expanded flat the Fibonacci measurements are 1982-1993.

Do not panic nothing has changed, news does not change a trend they cause volatility. In April I wrote a correction is starting, it is time only for traders and the next important low will come with the 40 week cycle low in September.... two months later I do not see a reason to change this statement even with 100 points bar lower.

Now some thoughts about the short term and intermediate term - it is all about psychology.
- short term - it will last a few days before all which have panicked sell their positions and buyers step in. This should finish wave C of expanded flat.
- intermediate term - do you remember what I wrote in August and February? Such moves are not sustainable they exhaust sellers too fast - I do not see trend change the correction has begun two months ago it is not starting now. Such panic moves cause a lot of fear and pain and usually are not the bottom - there is retracement(no more sellers) followed by another move lower caused by momentum traders and those who were trapped long but have not yet sold.

Combine all this with cycles which say it is too early for important low and I my forecast is for a double correction something similar like on the chart below.

The futures pushed higher to higher high probably confusing many tradedrs, but I think the pattern is the same. It is just were you place wave B - for the futures it is a bigger zig-zag for the cash index I stay with 1-2-3.

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