May 17, 2017

Update

The move lower counts perfect as an impulse, which means bounce higher and another leg lower should follow. This are preliminary measurements if we see perfect bounce to test the break lower MA200/MA50/resistance and perfect waves with text book Fibo size.
If it is only a-b-c(green I do not think this is the pattern) one more leg with the same size to around 2335. More likely an impulse lower for C of an expanded flat(red) to around 2290.... it should move at least below 2320.

15 comments:

  1. Thank you, how about GDXJ? From daily plot, it looks like some top, but hourly, it seems still another push up?

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    1. If you dig deep into 10min charts for example yes one final push up is possible. At such level is the analysis not o reliable. This time it could work next time it will not.

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  2. Thanks Krasi. Another timely update very much appreciated.

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  3. Thank you Krasi. I appreciate all the updates.

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  4. Curious to what your thoughts are on USD, JPY, and EUR? Thanks!

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    1. DXY and EURUSD the move looks like 7 waves which is corrective and I think the USD is making a yearly cycle low so I expect several months higher.
      USDJPY should move above the last high ~118.6, but according to cycles we had important 8 year cycle high in mid-2015 so it should stay below ~125.8

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  5. How about the rebound now? It seems not very strong. But strong sectors are pretty good. So? Also GDXJ, seems correction not strong enough or still have time to go down further? Thanks.

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  6. As expected rebound higher nothing changed, this should be corrective move before another leg lower.
    GDXJ - the correction has more to the downside.

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    1. Thank you, it seems the rebound would continue at least one day or more until it reaches MA20/EMA50? VIX still high, hope it would go down more before spike again :)

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  7. What's the possible down wave? It seems the rebound has already hit the target. Thanks. I'm thinking possible hang over for few days or plunge again? Maybe too early to short again?

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    1. I think it should be wave 3 testing 2320 support, worst case one more leg with the same size.
      I can not tell how the exact path will look like.... I have struggled with such short term trades for years without success.
      I moved to longer time frames and size the position with 2-3 entries not at once and holding...
      If I have to guess I would say it should start drifting lower and open lower on Monday.
      I think we have just a-b-c higher which looks finished and a good point for a short entry.

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    2. Thank you for the detailed explanation. About GDXJ, I think it should go down next week, but If SPX also goes down, I'm worried whether they can exist together? Sometimes they go the same direction, sometimes they go inverse... how about the current situation?

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    3. Yes GDXJ should correct more then another leg higher. Do not compare it with the stock indexes. Sometimes they move in teh same direction sometimes in the opposite.
      Watch USDJPY very strong correlation with PM.

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  8. Krasi-once GDXJ bottoms are you looking for a move in percentage terms to that of January 2016-August 2016?

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