Trading cycle - buy signal, the trend line was tested one more time. Not a big surprise the 4th daily cycle was expected.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - I see corrective moves.... I do not buy this reversal with LD or impulse higher. Wedging again and another double zig-zag so we have moves, which are part of bigger corrective pattern.
It is what it is - complex corrective pattern. The Majority try to simplify it to see something familiar impulse lower and higher.... it is not, just accept it complex corrective topping pattern.
Intermediate term - it is still speculation, but with three corrective legs and expected high in a few weeks the pattern which fits is triangle for Y.
Alternate we have A-B and C lower should follow.... looking cycles and market breadth this does not look very likely.
And if you want it more exotic look at RUT it looks exacly like Neely's diametric:)
Long term - the bull market completed in 2018. Since then a bunch of corrective waves. Currently I think this rally should be a corrective wave of a bigger pattern flat/triangle or x wave. With corrective waves often you have to adjust so stay open minded.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - are pointing higher, not a big suprise after they were signaling to expect a bottom.
McClellan Oscillator - close to overbought level.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - reached the 75 level.
Fear Indicator VIX - the same consolidating sideways.
Advance-Decline Issues - finaly testing the broken trend line.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - unusually long 20d cycle... nevertheless I think this is 5w high and next 5w low should follow. Lets see what happens next week. The alternate scenario is 5w high last week and just continuing higher for 10w high...
Week 13 for the 20 week cycle. The 10w low looks confirmed, the 40w high... if we have triangle or something else as a top the cycle top should be placed where the pattern is completed.
Gold heading to new highs now?
ReplyDeleteYes, one final high will look better.
Deletethe eur/usd looks like wave 4 from March, a higher high to 1.21 and then around 1.10 in december-january in the 4 years cycle low?
ReplyDeleteI think this is corrective leg, not sure if it is 4y cycle low USD makes lows/highs every 3 years now it is time for this EUR/USD high (DXY low).
DeleteI think we have big triangle and after the high we will see wave d of this triangle, which will take months like late summer 2021.
With triangle is difficult to say the trend line connecting the last two lows is around 1.08 so this is the maximum target or it could be a few cents higher.
Great job.
ReplyDeleteGreek.
So the dolar is going doun?
ReplyDeleteDown? Or up?
ReplyDeleteRead what I wrote....
DeleteGold wave c from that large triangle looks way too short.
ReplyDeleteThe supposed a wave was very big and fast so it is fine if c is not so strong.
DeleteI think it was 1-2 of C but we"ll C soon enough
DeleteMas de C!
Deletewithin 80 pts of the ath & there is a good turn window early this week. Tried a bit of short & will add if it extends still further . This could be the top of 3 so not getting too excited yet , as it still might need a 4/5 and a double top to complete .
ReplyDeleteSame old story of every rally going further & faster than most expect . One day that'll change.
A little bit too early - see the first chart another 10 days or more are needed to complete high to high count.
DeleteIn simple TTheory (time symmetry), we had a clear 14 day downtrend/correction. This is now followed by a clear 13 days uptrend counting Monday if it closes this way. With overbought readings in short term indicators and a matching double top, it would make a top tomorrow according to this method.
ReplyDeletesmall caps are not confirming the move, well for now....
ReplyDeleteShort squeeze and mega tech stocks, NYSE and especially McClellan Oscillator is not reacting the last two days - very awkward on such bullish days.
DeleteHi Krasi, based on market breadth and historical data that sentimentrader publishes, it seems overall the market is healthier (bullish percentage, % stocks above MA50 etc) and may be getting stronger? So why the discrepancy between these signals and the big decline expected through cycles?
ReplyDeleteMarket breadth shows we had a strong run nothing more.
DeleteNo pattern no cycles. There is no trend and impulse to extrapolate into the future.
This indicators can not predict complex corrective patterns they are just lagging.
Was that the B or at least C of triangle?
ReplyDeleteI think so, three gaps in a row smells like short squeeze and exhaustion.
DeleteKrasi, look nyad cummulative, whenever it has made ath, the sp has made it too, so we will see new ath in sp
ReplyDeleteSome kind of double top is possible.
DeleteYou just said last week to forgot about a new ATH
DeleteThan I will be wrong for a few days, when we see the double top and if it makes higher high.
DeleteDays ago you commented on a hurst cycle when the price reconnected with the ema 10 on daily, I think this is happening now, what cycle was that ?
ReplyDeleteI do not know what you mean... currently watching this https://invst.ly/sgken
DeleteBig drop coming
ReplyDeleteWhat targets in price and time?
DeleteThis is for sure...
DeleteTime target - I am watching this https://invst.ly/sgken
Another 1-2 weeks for a high and lower into fist half of December.
Price target minimum the June lows, probably lower.
I found what I mean in the post above: every 7-10 trading days their some kind of interaction between price and M10, this corresponds to 10 day Hurst cycle lasting 7-9 trading days
ReplyDeleteI wrote this long time ago.... yes we had one MA10 touch for 10d cycle now the next one is coming for the 20d cycle.
Delete6 october 10d low and 16-19 october 20d low?
DeleteYes, this week should be a 20d low - it is running already sideways correction.
Deletedxy at support, if it holds and rallies - whoa nelly
ReplyDeleteThe pattern from the March low is very ugly... to be honest I can not really count an orthodox EW pattern. The most ridiculous counts are those with impulse real joke. The closest one is w-x-y, but most of the up legs are corrective not impulses.
ReplyDeleteSo some "crazy stuff" with Neowave patterns:
SPX w-x-y with neutral triangle for y and w=y - https://ibb.co/7rb4fxg
SOX and many others, which made higher high diametrical resembling bow tie - https://ibb.co/LgD42R4
Here is how this Neowave patterns look like if you are interested - https://kiprushov.wordpress.com/2011/01/16/the-5-new-patterns/
Even if the wave patterns are ugly, the RSI trend lines you drew on those charts are beautiful and tell the whole story. Perfect break and failure to move back above on the SPX with a lower high.
DeleteNot impossible the SPX could do what SOX did and squeeze above one last time in the next week for a final last move, but lower probability after today.
There is a similar trend line on the 15-min chart of the move from the Sept low and it has also broken - https://imgur.com/a/hvaxItg
High odds we either fall from here or there is one more attempt at the under-side of both those trend lines.
Yes, EW/neowave are just one tool there is other tools which are helpful like classical TA(rsi+trend lines) or cycles where you can easily count 40w high.
DeleteAt the end all three tools are telling the same story - this is the top for the move from the March low.
Just to clarify "this is the top" I expect another two weeks to complete 10w cycle - https://invst.ly/sgken
DeleteTalking about neowave, this is my count:
ReplyDeletehttps://prnt.sc/uzaaoy
regards Manuel
and this is the count of the wave F of the diametric, wxy, y as neutral triangule. From 7 october it is the "escape" of that triangule
Deletehttps://prnt.sc/uzagjg
Even better:) I am not neowave expert, until a month ago I was denying all this patterns sticking to classic EW.... but now it is the only one working.
DeleteRemember 2018, it was the same diametric in sp and dji. Neowave is very very powerful although it is very difficult, there are many rules, also in time.
DeleteNow comes the best :), the escape of the diametric as in December 2018
This is the problem - there is so many rules personally I am too lazy to learn or check them all the time:) Counting to three or five is much easier first grade stuff:))))
Deletecount for gold without G's or F's? DXY is telling me Gold may go much lower
DeleteThe question is if wave G is finished, I think not.
ReplyDeleteTo validate the diametric the line DF must be broken in less time than the G wave lasts
According my short term cycles it is not complete another week or two.
Deleteshould be a good entry for the fomo-ers. Top close
DeleteDollar moon!
ReplyDeleteAnother touch of MA10 most likely for 20d low. For a perfection we need one more 20d high to complete 10w(and most likely 40w) high. The same chart from yesterday updated - https://invst.ly/shbe3
ReplyDeleteAnother red day breaking the trend line and MA10 will mean decline into 40w low is underway.
I think it's unfolding slowly because many think the market can't really go down much. "what news is going to bring this down?" Is what I keep hearing. The answer is pretty much anything as long as the institutions want out.
DeleteThere is no need for a news the market just decline or move higher.
DeleteNews does not move the market.
I agree completely but cnbc needs to explain it that way. "Here's your reason" plebiscites!
DeletePs bear flags on both gold and silver. Silver really could surprise next week
ReplyDeleteWHat do you think about APT or AHPI? THey are CV stocks I expected them to go up, not sure if I should double down or what
ReplyDeleteAPT look similar to the indices one bounce higher and big lower.
DeleteAHPI looks oversold and bottoming.
but APT is not even following the indices, it looks like it's following AHPI and the other CV stocks
DeleteLook at the turns it is exactly like the indices.
Deletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5iaps9PSrfM&feature=youtu.be
ReplyDeleteLets see if he is right:) All joking aside until month or two ago I was ignoring his neowave patterns, but with this leg up and what is going on in the last 2 years I just can not explain it with orthodox EW. I want to be objective and listen to the market not just pasting labels somewhere somehow.
DeleteThat is why I wrote several times about his expanding triangle and now about diametrical. Before seeing his expanding triangle I was forecasting another corrective leg higher, which will be fully retraced just I had no idea why... now everything looks clear.
Short term looking my cycle chart from yesterday and his primary scenario they look the same - very good example how waves and cycles work hand in hand:)
P.S. at the end he says something very important analysis is NOT trading, two completely different animals. It took him 15 years and it took me 10 years to understand it and to start separating them..... and still working on this.
Very well said, Krasi. We need to trade the price action and wait for confirmation (higher probability). Until market brakes long term supports/trendlines - no room for shorts imo.
DeleteBear flag on nq hourly chart now. I'm thinking we may have begun the larger down move but I'd love to get higher to add shorts.
ReplyDelete