Weekly preview

Another choppy week... nothing really changed. I expect final push higher next week followed by sharp decline. The move up should last until mid next week, but it could be stretched a few more days until the elections.
I have synchronized the cycle count with the expected EW pattern so late September as 20 week low is the primary count.


TRADING
Trading cycle - sell signal. After the big red candle we do not have follow through for 4 days so probably fake brake lower and one more push higher before the reversal lower. High to high count is at day 36 so right on schedule - a few days higher and daily cycle high.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - continue to mimic the whole rally from March. Big sideways move and we should have reversal, but only corrective crap - exactly like September.
The orthodox EW guys trying to count second diagonal or ED/expanding ED for the big move... I am skeptical about all this diagonals.

Intermediate term - corrective decline to test MA50. I expect bounce and collapse lower.
The least wrong orthodox EW pattern is a-b-c(white) with C expanding ending diagonal(suggested by Peter Temple). At least you do not count corrective waves as impulses. It is still wrong and diametric is the right one, but it does not matter because the outcome will be the same.

Long term - the bull market completed in 2018. Since then a bunch of corrective waves. Currently I think this rally should be a corrective wave of a bigger pattern most likely triangle. Look at NDX we have corrective wave which is 1,618 bigger than the previous one which could be only b of a triangle. I think the best looking pattern is Neely's triangle. Wave C should begin soon.
The indicators with divergences ripe for reversal.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - with double divergences and trying to turn lower. Probably one final up short term and divergence next week.
McClellan Oscillator - reset below zero and now divergence is expected.
McClellan Summation Index - double divergence, trying to turn lower.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - double divergence, trying to turn lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - double divergence, trying to turn lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - consolidating and making higher lows.
Advance-Decline Issues - weak in the middle of the range, probably one final divergence next week.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - final push next week for 10w/40w high. For time symmetry three more days 10+10=8+12, but it could stretch a few more days because of the elections.
We had 20d low this week a little bit too long, but too short for 5w low... somewhere in the middle - the explanation is below, I expect longer than the usual 40w cycle.

Week 4 for the 20w cycle. I have adjusted the cycles to the pattern I expect. The 40w cycle is dominant and we should see nice symmetrical bell shape for this cycle. What could be the explanation for longer cycle? - the previous one was extremely short with only 3 trading cycles and this one will be longer with 5 trading cycles so average again 8=5+3. The cycles will be adjusted for the missing time and will continue with their usual pace.

I was trying to remember, where I saw this shape above - it is the summation of three cycles idealized shape. On the chart above this three cycles are the 10w,20w and 40w cycles. This is a screenshot from one of David Hickson's videos. It is exactly the same - we have the left side and the two heads, now only the right shoulder is missing.